LAD vs ARI prediction for August 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ARI 4.8 - LAD 5.1. LAD is favored with a 52.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.9 total runs.
ARI
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
LAD
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARILAD
+1.5
Run Line (ARI)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.4% (3,212 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
357
ARI
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Justin Wrobleski L
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%94 mph22% whiff
SL29%86 mph19% whiff
SI8%94 mph7% whiff
Eduardo Rodriguez L
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF39%92 mph19% whiff
CH27%86 mph22% whiff
CU13%80 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Chase Field
112°F3 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.080 Total: 1.040
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
4.11ERA
4.05FIP
10.10K/9
4.23BB/9
1.29WHIP
ARI
3.88ERA
3.91FIP
7.91K/9
3.00BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
2.8 runs
44.1% win
ARI F5
2.7 runs
41.6% win
F5 Total
5.5
NRFI
55.4%
YRFI
44.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.99
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Blake Snell SP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Stone SP60-DAY-IL
Bobby Miller SP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Glasnow SP60-DAY-IL
Dalton Rushing C10-DAY-IL
Kris Bubic SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ARI8 injured
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
Merrill Kelly SPDAY-TO-DAY
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Thompson RP15-DAY-IL
Justin Martinez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.