MIA vs NYM prediction for May 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 4.0 - MIA 4.0. NYM is favored with a 51.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
NYM
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIA
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMMIA
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.4% (2,440 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
246
NYM
246
Projected
NYM 4.0 — MIA 4.0
Actual
NYM 10 — MIA 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
John King L
MIA
SI30%91 mph18% whiff
SL23%82 mph18% whiff
CH19%83 mph30% whiff
Nolan McLean R
NYM
SI36%95 mph16% whiff
FF18%96 mph18% whiff
ST16%85 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
72°F6 mph wind
HR: 0.986 Total: 0.990
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
3.43ERA
3.52FIP
9.59K/9
4.45BB/9
1.18WHIP
NYM
3.72ERA
3.62FIP
9.39K/9
3.79BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-34.3% EV
-154
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-16.5% EV
+128
ML HOME
-14.6% EV
-164
F5_ML HOME
-12.3% EV
-172
ML AWAY
+11.7% EV
+138
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-8.8% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
1.9 runs
37.9% win
NYM F5
2.2 runs
44.2% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
62.3%
YRFI
37.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.74
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
55%
No HR
16%
Juan Soto NYM24.2%
ISO: 0.164 | Barrel: 16.0% | vs John King | Park: 0.96x
Liam Hicks MIA13.3%
ISO: 0.239 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Nolan McLean | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Mark Vientos NYM12.9%
ISO: 0.187 | Barrel: 7.9% | vs John King | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
John King
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Nolan McLean
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Janson Junk SP15-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP15-DAY-IL
Eury Perez SP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Conine LF10-DAY-IL
Kemp Alderman RFDAY-TO-DAY
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
Francisco Alvarez C10-DAY-IL
Tyrone Taylor CF10-DAY-IL
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Model favors away MIA (RED zone) but McLean > King on pitcher grades. Market respecting NYM at -163. Skip RED zone away despite edge.
Key Factors
- McLean > King pitcher
- Market -163 respecting
Risk Factors
- RED zone away
RED ZONE AWAYPITCHER CONTRADICTION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 51.4%
-16.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-16.5 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →