Who is predicted to win MIL vs HOU on May 31, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, MIL is favored with a 62.8% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is HOU 4.6 - MIL 6.4.

How did MIL vs HOU on May 31, 2026 end?

Final score: HOU 0 - MIL 2. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

MIL vs HOU Prediction & Picks — May 31, 2026

MIL vs HOU prediction for May 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 4.6 - MIL 6.4. MIL is favored with a 62.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 11.0 total runs.

HOU

4.6

Projected Score

VS O/U 7.5

MIL

6.4

Projected Score

Win Probability

37.2%

62.8%

HOUMIL

+1.5

Run Line (HOU)

7.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

MIL W5HOU

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.3% (2,440 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

MIL

468

HOU

357

Projected

HOU 4.6 — MIL 6.4

Actual

HOU 0 — MIL 2

Pick Results

Christian Walker OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsLOSS-1.00u

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Jacob Misiorowski R

MIL

FF62%100 mph41% whiff

SL24%94 mph22% whiff

CU12%87 mph41% whiff

Tatsuya Imai R

HOU

SL43%87 mph38% whiff

FF40%95 mph16% whiff

SI12%95 mph16% whiff

Weather Impact

Minute Maid Park

87°F1 mph windRoof: retractable

HR: 1.033 Total: 1.017

thin air

Bullpen Comparison

MIL

3.52ERA

3.20FIP

9.59K/9

4.21BB/9

1.32WHIP

HOU

4.92ERA

4.81FIP

7.61K/9

5.24BB/9

1.45WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE HOME +1.5

-40.4% EV

-105

TOTAL UNDER 7.5

-35.9% EV

-104

TOTAL OVER 7.5

+24.5% EV

-118

F5 OVER 4.5

+19.6% EV

+116

F5_ML HOME

-11.1% EV

+176

RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5

-5.4% EV

-115

First 5 Innings & NRFI

MIL F5

3.7 runs

59.8% win

HOU F5

2.2 runs

27.9% win

F5 Total

5.9

NRFI

50.8%

YRFI

49.2%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

1.12

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

2.2

Over 0.5 HR

88%

Over 1.5 HR

64%

No HR

12%

Brice Turang MIL28.4%

ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 9.4% | vs Tatsuya Imai | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x

Jake Bauers MIL26.9%

ISO: 0.214 | Barrel: 10.5% | vs Tatsuya Imai | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x

Yordan Alvarez HOU26.2%

ISO: 0.311 | Barrel: 18.9% | vs Jacob Misiorowski | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Jacob Misiorowski

0.0 K projected

MIL | K/9: 0.0

Tatsuya Imai

0.0 K projected

HOU | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

MIL8 injured

Quinn Priester SP15-DAY-IL

Jared Koenig RP15-DAY-IL

Brandon Woodruff SP15-DAY-IL

Logan Henderson SP15-DAY-IL

Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL

Brandon Lockridge LF10-DAY-IL

+2 more

HOU8 injured

Braden Shewmake SSDAY-TO-DAY

Jose Altuve 2B10-DAY-IL

Cristian Javier SP60-DAY-IL

Hayden Wesneski SP60-DAY-IL

Ronel Blanco SP60-DAY-IL

Josh Hader RP60-DAY-IL

+2 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

NEUTRAL

OVER 7.5 with 24.5% edge (model 67.3%) but system totals disabled per calibration. Misiorowski elite (A-) vs Imai (C+) drives edge, but 24.5% falls into worst historical performance bucket (38% WR on 20%+ edges). Skip per protocol despite pitcher mismatch.

Key Factors

Misiorowski A-elite
24.5% edge
Thin air

Risk Factors

Totals disabled
High edge worst bucket

TOTALS DISABLEDHIGH EDGE WARNING

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

MIL 62.8%

-40.4 pts

Run Line