FINAL: ARI 4 — MIL 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected ARI 5.3 - MIL 5.3 (ARI at 50.5% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 10.6 total runs.
ARI
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
MIL
5.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARIMIL
+1.5
Run Line (ARI)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MIL W5ARI W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.8% (2,777 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
357
ARI
357
Projected
ARI 5.3 — MIL 5.3
Actual
ARI 4 — MIL 3
Pick Results
MIL -1.5run_lineLOSS-0.50u
MIL @ ARI F5 OVER 5.5f5LOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brandon Sproat R
MIL
SI25%96 mph16% whiff
FC24%93 mph20% whiff
FF20%97 mph22% whiff
Eduardo Rodriguez L
ARI
FF40%92 mph19% whiff
CH27%86 mph20% whiff
FC13%89 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
Chase Field
104°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.028 Total: 1.011
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.66ERA
3.52FIP
9.38K/9
3.94BB/9
1.32WHIP
ARI
3.28ERA
3.68FIP
8.28K/9
3.10BB/9
1.10WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-22.9% EV
-118
F5_ML AWAY
-18.3% EV
-167
F5 OVER 5.5
+18.0% EV
+110
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-18.0% EV
-102
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-16.4% EV
-122
F5_ML HOME
+13.5% EV
+132
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
3.1 runs
42.7% win
ARI F5
3.3 runs
46.0% win
F5 Total
6.4
NRFI
46.7%
YRFI
53.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.31
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.3
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
84%
No HR
4%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Brandon Sproat
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Eduardo Rodriguez
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIL8 injured
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodriguez RP15-DAY-IL
Logan Henderson SP15-DAY-IL
DL Hall RP15-DAY-IL
Coleman Crow SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
ARI8 injured
James McCann C10-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
Corbin Burnes SP60-DAY-IL
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
Ryne Nelson SP60-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE51.1% WR (n=233)
SCHEDULED GAME. Model gives home ARI +9.2% edge on ML (46.3% prob underdog) and +8.2% edge on OVER (54.1% prob). These are modest edges. Eduardo Rodriguez (home, C+, 6.7% K rate) vs Brandon Sproat (away, B-, 8.6% K rate) — away has slight SP edge. Weather: 103.8°F EXTREME HEAT (hottest game on slate), 8.3mph in wind. Coors-like inflation from heat (triple-digit weather massively inflates run scoring). F5 OVER at +18% (56.2% prob) is the strongest edge here. Take F5 OVER or full OVER as LEAN (0.5-1.0 units).
Key Factors
- 103.8°F temperature is EXTREME (hottest on slate); historical data shows +1.0 to +1.5 run inflation per 10°F above 85°
- Brandon Sproat (away, B-, 25.6% K rate) slight edge over Eduardo Rodriguez (home, C+, 17.1% K rate)
- F5 OVER edge (+18%, 56.2%) much stronger than full-game OVER (+8.2%, 54.1%) — suggests volatility/front-loading
- Park factor 1.06 already accounts for altitude; extreme heat adds significantly to this
Risk Factors
- Model may be under-weighting extreme heat impact on run inflation
- Both pitchers B-grade (Rodriguez C+) are competent; no blowout expected but heat-inflated scoring likely
WEATHER IMPACTOVER VALUEEXTREME HEAT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ARI 50.5%
-22.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-22.9 pts
Total
9.5
+8.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →