MLB Baseball

MIN vs OAK Prediction

August 26, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

MIN vs OAK prediction for August 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 4.7 - MIN 5.6. OAK is favored with a 50.2% win probability. OAK wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.0. Model projects 10.2 total runs.

OAK
4.7
Projected Score
VS O/U 10.0
MIN
5.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
50.2%
49.8%
OAKMIN
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
10.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.5% (3,347 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

MIN
468
OAK
357

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Connor Prielipp L
MIN
SL30% · 88
FF28% · 96
CU17% · 83
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL30%88 mph28% whiff
FF28%96 mph13% whiff
CU17%83 mph34% whiff
J.T. Ginn R
OAK
SI36% · 93
CH20% · 88
FC16% · 90
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI36%93 mph19% whiff
CH20%88 mph33% whiff
FC16%90 mph21% whiff

Weather Impact

Sutter Health Park
95°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.051 Total: 1.026
thin air

Bullpen Comparison

MIN
4.37ERA
4.03FIP
9.02K/9
3.98BB/9
1.39WHIP
OAK
5.37ERA
4.49FIP
9.60K/9
4.62BB/9
1.58WHIP

Betting Edges

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Edge Analysis
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First 5 Innings & NRFI

MIN F5
2.7 runs
44.0% win
OAK F5
2.5 runs
41.3% win
F5 Total
5.3
NRFI
56.9%
YRFI
43.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92

HR Spotlight

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Home Run Analysis
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Injury Report

MIN8 injured
Byron Buxton CFDAY-TO-DAY
Joe Ryan SP15-DAY-IL
Austin Martin RF10-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK8 injured
Jacob Wilson SS60-DAY-IL
Shea Langeliers C10-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B60-DAY-IL
Tyler Soderstrom LF60-DAY-IL
Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more

Model Edge & Sizing

🔒The model's edge against the market, and the stake it sizes for this matchup, are premium.Unlock

Edge Analysis

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Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.

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