NYM vs TEX prediction for September 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TEX 4.7 - NYM 4.1. TEX is favored with a 59.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
TEX
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
NYM
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXNYM
-1.5
Run Line (TEX)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.5% (4,023 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
246
TEX
357
Projected
TEX 4.7 — NYM 4.1
Actual
TEX 3 — NYM 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sean Manaea L
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF38%91 mph20% whiff
ST31%76 mph30% whiff
SI19%90 mph6% whiff
MacKenzie Gore L
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%95 mph20% whiff
CU18%82 mph26% whiff
CH13%86 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
93°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.022 Total: 1.009
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.36ERA
4.28FIP
9.54K/9
3.74BB/9
1.33WHIP
TEX
4.26ERA
4.44FIP
8.44K/9
3.71BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.3 runs
36.1% win
TEX F5
2.9 runs
49.5% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
50.8%
YRFI
49.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.08
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
NYM7 injured
Christian Scott SP15-DAY-IL
Jared Young 1B7-DAY IL
Daniel Duarte RP15-DAY-IL
Robert Stock RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco DH60-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
TEX8 injured
Joc Pederson DH10-DAY-IL
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
Cal Quantrill RP15-DAY-IL
Michel Otanez RP15-DAY-IL
Cole Winn RP60-DAY-IL
Michael Helman CF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.