NYY vs OAK prediction for May 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 4.3 - NYY 6.2. NYY is favored with a 63.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.0. Model projects 10.5 total runs.
OAK
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.0
NYY
6.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKNYY
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
10.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.9% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
468
OAK
246
Projected
OAK 4.3 — NYY 6.2
Actual
OAK 8 — NYY 13
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Will Warren R
NYY
FF41%94 mph22% whiff
SI26%94 mph21% whiff
ST23%84 mph23% whiff
Jacob Lopez L
OAK
FF34%90 mph13% whiff
SL30%77 mph20% whiff
FC20%86 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Oakland Coliseum
77°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.990 Total: 0.992
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.44ERA
3.81FIP
8.70K/9
3.57BB/9
1.29WHIP
OAK
4.08ERA
3.77FIP
9.09K/9
4.09BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-40.6% EV
-103
F5_ML HOME
-13.4% EV
+135
TOTAL UNDER 10.0
-9.7% EV
-110
TOTAL OVER 10.0
-9.0% EV
-110
ML HOME
-6.8% EV
+153
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-5.6% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
3.4 runs
55.4% win
OAK F5
2.2 runs
31.1% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
50.4%
YRFI
49.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.10
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
12%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.302 | Barrel: 19.0% | vs Jacob Lopez | Park: 0.94x
Aaron Judge NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.302 | Barrel: 17.6% | vs Jacob Lopez | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Paul Goldschmidt NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.418 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Jacob Lopez | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Will Warren
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Jacob Lopez
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY7 injured
Angel Chivilli RP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Amed Rosario 3BPATERNITY
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Jasson Dominguez LF10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
OAK8 injured
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP15-DAY-IL
Leo De Vries SSDAY-TO-DAY
Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL
Aaron Civale SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
NYY away historically weak with near-zero edge (model 63.1% vs market 64.9%). Warren pitcher edge (A- vs C) likely already priced in at -185 OAK favorite. Skip historically weak away without meaningful edge.
Key Factors
- Warren elite pitcher
- Market -185 respecting
- No edge
Risk Factors
- historically weak away
MODEL MARKET ALIGNMENT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 63.2%
-40.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-40.6 pts
Total
10.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →