PHI vs LAA prediction for August 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAA 3.3 - PHI 3.8. PHI is favored with a 51.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.1 total runs.
LAA
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
PHI
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAAPHI
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.2% (3,529 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
246
LAA
135
Projected
LAA 3.3 — PHI 3.8
Actual
LAA 3 — PHI 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andrew Painter R
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%97 mph11% whiff
SL20%88 mph37% whiff
ST15%83 mph24% whiff
Reid Detmers L
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%94 mph17% whiff
SL32%86 mph33% whiff
CU11%72 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
95°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.076 Total: 1.040
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.37ERA
3.86FIP
10.33K/9
3.62BB/9
1.36WHIP
LAA
3.96ERA
4.18FIP
9.50K/9
3.78BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.0 runs
42.2% win
LAA F5
1.9 runs
39.3% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
61.6%
YRFI
38.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.74
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PHI7 injured
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Reyes LF60-DAY-IL
Rafael Marchan C10-DAY-IL
Caleb Kilian RP15-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
+1 more
LAA8 injured
Nolan Schanuel 1B10-DAY-IL
Samy Natera Jr. RP15-DAY-IL
Gustavo Campero OF10-DAY-IL
Sam Bachman RP15-DAY-IL
Sebastian Rivero C60-DAY-IL
Shaun Anderson RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.