FINAL: CWS 3 — PIT 9. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CWS 5.2 - PIT 5.2 (CWS at 51.6% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.4 total runs.
CWS
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
PIT
5.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSPIT
-1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
PITCWS W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.0% (3,814 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
357
CWS
357
Projected
CWS 5.2 — PIT 5.2
Actual
CWS 3 — PIT 9
Pick Results
PIT MLmlWIN+0.65u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bubba Chandler R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%98 mph18% whiff
SL21%91 mph24% whiff
CH15%92 mph24% whiff
Sean Burke R
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF37%95 mph22% whiff
KC20%79 mph25% whiff
SL17%86 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
Rate Field
81°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.001 Total: 0.998
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
3.60ERA
3.60FIP
9.72K/9
4.28BB/9
1.26WHIP
CWS
4.12ERA
4.41FIP
8.95K/9
4.46BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+17.0% EV
+101
NRFI NRFI
-12.2% EV
-132
ML HOME
-8.0% EV
-135
F5_ML HOME
-6.9% EV
-152
ML AWAY
+6.1% EV
+125
F5 OVER 4.5
+4.4% EV
-108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
2.7 runs
38.7% win
CWS F5
3.1 runs
47.7% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
48.0%
YRFI
52.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.23
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.0
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
78%
No HR
6%
Oneil Cruz PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.221 | Barrel: 11.8% | vs Sean Burke | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.299 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs Bubba Chandler | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Brandon Lowe PIT28.3%
ISO: 0.262 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Sean Burke | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bubba Chandler
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Sean Burke
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT4 injured
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Kirby Yates RP15-DAY-IL
Endy Rodriguez C60-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
OVER 8.5 shows 16.2% edge, but that magnitude triggers the model's high-edge overconfidence pattern, so treat as a lean rather than a full bet despite Burke's modest edge over Chandler.
Key Factors
- Pitcher edge to CWS: Burke 3.46 ERA (B-, overall 0.548) vs Chandler 4.64 ERA (C+, overall 0.386), 1.18 ERA gap
- Temperature 78F ideal for scoring; park factor near neutral (0.990 total mult)
- Model total 10.23 vs market 8.5 = 1.73 run edge
- 16.2% edge exceeds the model's historically-reliable 5-15% historical support
Risk Factors
- High-edge warning: edges >15% show a supportive track record historically
- Totals market disabled overall (0/3 windows)
- Both SPs are middle-tier, reducing projection certainty
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 51.6%
-1.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-1.5 pts
Total
8.5
+17.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.