SD vs LAD prediction for July 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAD 4.3 - SD 3.1. LAD is favored with a 66.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.4 total runs.
LAD
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SD
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADSD
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.2% (2,777 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
135
LAD
246
Projected
LAD 4.3 — SD 3.1
Actual
LAD 3 — SD 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
JP Sears L
SD
FF40%92 mph17% whiff
ST27%79 mph24% whiff
CH16%84 mph17% whiff
Emmet Sheehan R
LAD
FF43%94 mph26% whiff
SL31%87 mph39% whiff
CH15%85 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
74°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.996 Total: 0.995
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SD
3.15ERA
3.66FIP
8.41K/9
3.44BB/9
1.23WHIP
LAD
3.58ERA
3.45FIP
10.00K/9
3.64BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-42.6% EV
+100
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-22.8% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+13.8% EV
-110
F5_ML HOME
-11.5% EV
-263
NRFI NRFI
+10.2% EV
+104
F5_ML AWAY
+7.7% EV
+200
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
1.8 runs
32.0% win
LAD F5
2.6 runs
52.8% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
58.4%
YRFI
41.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.89
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
69%
No HR
10%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
JP Sears
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Emmet Sheehan
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Randy Vasquez SP15-DAY-IL
Freddy Fermin C10-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP15-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP15-DAY-IL
David Morgan RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAD8 injured
Shohei Ohtani DHDAY-TO-DAY
Will Smith C10-DAY-IL
Tyler Glasnow SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Treinen RP15-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP60-DAY-IL
Landon Knack SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=301)
SCHEDULED GAME. Model gives home LAD -5.8% edge on ML (67.8% prob favorite) — market actually slightly favors home at 71.9%, so model is CONSERVATIVE on LAD. Under edge +13.8% (59.6% prob) is moderate and reasonable. Emmet Sheehan (home, B-grade, 10.1% K rate) vs JP Sears (away, B-, 3.5% K rate, 6.6% BB rate) — HOME has clear SP edge (Sheehan >> Sears). Cool LA weather (74.1°F) + 6.7mph in = under-lean but modest. F5 away edge +7.7% (35.9% prob) suggests early under; NRFI at +10.2% (54% prob) is solid. LEAN on UNDER (0.75 units).
Key Factors
- Emmet Sheehan (home, B, 10.1% K rate, 7.3% BB rate) >> JP Sears (away, B-, 3.5% K rate, 6.6% BB rate) — home SP dominates
- +13.8% under edge sits in YELLOW zone (50.1% WR) but justified by park/weather factors
- Cool weather (74.1°F) + 6.7mph in + park 0.92 (Dodgers slightly under-park) = legitimate under environment
- NRFI edge +10.2% (54% prob) validates under lean; early runs unlikely
Risk Factors
- Model's ML edge (-5.8% to home) is conservative vs market (71.9% implied home); not a strong contrarian signal
UNDER VALUEPITCHER ADVANTAGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 66.3%
-6.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-6.8 pts
Total
8.5
+13.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →