SD vs TB prediction for August 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 3.8 - SD 4.0. TB is favored with a 51.4% win probability. TB wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
TB
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SD
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBSD
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.2% (3,529 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
246
TB
246
Projected
TB 3.8 — SD 4.0
Actual
TB 7 — SD 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Walker Buehler R
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC24%90 mph18% whiff
FF20%94 mph12% whiff
SI19%94 mph11% whiff
Nick Martinez R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI31%92 mph9% whiff
CH27%78 mph29% whiff
FC21%89 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
88°F3 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
SD
3.08ERA
3.62FIP
9.72K/9
3.75BB/9
1.21WHIP
TB
3.53ERA
3.87FIP
8.80K/9
2.63BB/9
1.13WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
2.0 runs
35.2% win
TB F5
2.4 runs
47.5% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
59.0%
YRFI
41.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP60-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Griffin Jax SP15-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.