FINAL: LAD 6 — SEA 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected LAD 3.5 - SEA 3.7 (SEA at 50.2% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
LAD
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SEA
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADSEA
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.7% (3,107 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
246
LAD
245
Projected
LAD 3.5 — SEA 3.7
Actual
LAD 6 — SEA 2
Pick Results
SEA @ LAD NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryan Woo R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%96 mph22% whiff
SI18%96 mph9% whiff
SL15%87 mph29% whiff
Roki Sasaki R
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF43%98 mph15% whiff
FS25%90 mph34% whiff
SL21%87 mph39% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
72°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.060 Total: 1.032
thin air, 5mph out
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.38ERA
3.64FIP
8.81K/9
3.45BB/9
1.27WHIP
LAD
4.08ERA
4.09FIP
10.02K/9
4.29BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-26.4% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-21.3% EV
-149
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-19.3% EV
+134
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+18.2% EV
-105
F5_ML AWAY
+16.3% EV
+120
ML HOME
-11.5% EV
-145
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.3 runs
48.3% win
LAD F5
1.8 runs
34.4% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
58.6%
YRFI
41.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.80
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
11%
Dominic Canzone SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.254 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Roki Sasaki | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Max Muncy LAD29.1%
ISO: 0.245 | Barrel: 10.1% | vs Bryan Woo | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Luke Raley SEA28.6%
ISO: 0.234 | Barrel: 10.6% | vs Roki Sasaki | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bryan Woo
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Roki Sasaki
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA6 injured
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Logan Evans SP60-DAY-IL
LAD8 injured
Blake Snell SP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Glasnow SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Treinen RP15-DAY-IL
Will Smith C60-DAY-IL
Bobby Miller SP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Stone SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Model projects strong F5 (first-5-innings) advantage for Seattle: F5 ML away +19.4% edge (54.8% prob). Bryan Woo (SEA, 4.72 ERA, 23.8% K-rate, B grade) has clean command vs Roki Sasaki (LAD, 5.09 ERA, 23.2% K-rate, B- grade). F5 markets are cleaner (less bullpen variance) and this edge sits at top of profitable tier (8-15% edges historically a supportive track record). LEAN F5 ML SEA over full-game call.
Key Factors
- F5 ML away edge: +19.4% (54.8% model prob) — strong edge in 15-20% bracket
- SP quality: Woo 4.72 ERA (B grade, strong command), Sasaki 5.09 ERA (B- grade, weaker)
- F5 models cleaner: less bullpen variance, more SP-driven (40-50% of outcome)
- Full-game edge: +11.2% SEA away (47.9% prob) — weaker, suggests LAD bullpen edge in later innings
- Weather: neutral (72.5°F, light wind, Dodger Stadium no wind factor)
Risk Factors
- F5 ML away has 52.9% historical WR (small sample, n=17), better than full-game but still modest
- Sasaki may settle in after rough early innings; LAD bullpen is well-rested
- SEA lineup is not strong offensive threat (no HR candidates listed); offensive explosion unlikely
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 50.2%
-19.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-19.3 pts
Total
8.5
+18.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.