FINAL: OAK 6 — SEA 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected OAK 6.2 - SEA 5.9 (OAK at 54.9% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 12.2 total runs.
OAK
6.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.5
SEA
5.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKSEA
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
10.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SEA W4OAK W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.5% (3,883 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
468
OAK
468
Projected
OAK 6.2 — SEA 5.9
Actual
OAK 6 — SEA 5
Pick Results
OAK MLmlWIN+0.73u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
George Kirby R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF29%97 mph20% whiff
ST28%87 mph25% whiff
SI20%97 mph10% whiff
Jeffrey Springs L
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%91 mph12% whiff
CH25%80 mph36% whiff
SL23%84 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Sutter Health Park
85°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.050 Total: 1.026
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
4.04ERA
4.17FIP
8.71K/9
3.38BB/9
1.32WHIP
OAK
4.98ERA
4.33FIP
9.76K/9
4.60BB/9
1.53WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-18.2% EV
-179
ML HOME
+17.5% EV
+142
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-16.4% EV
+100
ML AWAY
-15.1% EV
-154
TOTAL UNDER 10.5
-14.5% EV
-108
F5_ML HOME
+14.1% EV
+140
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
3.5 runs
42.2% win
OAK F5
3.7 runs
46.5% win
F5 Total
7.2
NRFI
41.4%
YRFI
58.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.54
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.9
Over 0.5 HR
98%
Over 1.5 HR
89%
No HR
2%
Dominic Canzone SEA27.2%
ISO: 0.182 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Jeffrey Springs | Park: 0.94x
Cal Raleigh SEA27.0%
ISO: 0.147 | Barrel: 11.0% | vs Jeffrey Springs | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Max Muncy OAK22.2%
ISO: 0.244 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs George Kirby | Park: 0.94x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
George Kirby
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Jeffrey Springs
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Nick Davila RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Brennen Davis CF60-DAY-IL
Colt Emerson SS60-DAY-IL
Emerson Hancock SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK8 injured
Jacob Wilson SS60-DAY-IL
Shea Langeliers C10-DAY-IL
J.T. Ginn SP15-DAY-IL
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 3B60-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B60-DAY-IL
Tyler Soderstrom LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Extreme Oakland heat (85.3F, thin air, +2.6% total multiplier) supports the OVER even though Kirby (4.51 ERA) is the better pitcher on the road than Springs (6.5 ERA) — but the 17.5% ML edge on the OAK underdog is a red flag, so stick to totals only.
Key Factors
- Extreme heat: 85.3F, 9.2mph wind with 3mph tail boost, density altitude 1872 — highest run-inflation environment on slate (+2.6% total mult)
- Springs 6.5 ERA (home, poor) vs Kirby 4.51 ERA (away, better) — SEA has pitcher edge but model favors OAK ML at 17.5% edge (RED FLAG)
- 12.15 run total projection is highest on slate
- 17.5% ML edge sits in overconfidence cluster (a supportive track record historically)
Risk Factors
- HIGH_EDGE_WARNING: 17.5% OAK ML edge is a major overconfidence signal — avoid the moneyline entirely
- Extreme heat/altitude conditions may not be perfectly modeled by sim
- historically mixed totals (a supportive track record)
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OAK 54.9%
+10.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+10.6 pts
Total
10.5
+8.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.