FINAL: TOR 8 — SEA 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TOR 2.9 - SEA 3.4 (TOR at 50.6% win probability). TOR wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 6.2 total runs.
TOR
2.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
SEA
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORSEA
-1.5
Run Line (TOR)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SEA L4TOR W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.2% (3,529 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
135
TOR
135
Projected
TOR 2.9 — SEA 3.4
Actual
TOR 8 — SEA 1
Pick Results
SEA @ TOR F5 UNDER 3.5f5LOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Emerson Hancock R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF39%95 mph19% whiff
SI24%95 mph9% whiff
ST16%77 mph36% whiff
Dylan Cease R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%97 mph23% whiff
SL30%89 mph42% whiff
CH12%82 mph50% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
67°F5 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.030 Total: 1.017
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.78ERA
4.00FIP
9.02K/9
3.37BB/9
1.30WHIP
TOR
3.64ERA
4.12FIP
8.40K/9
3.80BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.0
-20.3% EV
-104
F5_ML HOME
-17.3% EV
-159
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-14.5% EV
+146
F5_ML AWAY
+11.3% EV
+126
F5 UNDER 3.5
+10.8% EV
-114
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
+9.8% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
1.7 runs
41.2% win
TOR F5
1.4 runs
35.8% win
F5 Total
3.1
NRFI
71.1%
YRFI
28.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.53
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.5
Over 0.5 HR
77%
Over 1.5 HR
44%
No HR
23%
Dominic Canzone SEA24.9%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs Dylan Cease | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Kazuma Okamoto TOR24.3%
ISO: 0.195 | Barrel: 11.9% | vs Emerson Hancock | Park: 1.01x
Cal Raleigh SEA22.8%
ISO: 0.192 | Barrel: 10.1% | vs Dylan Cease | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Emerson Hancock
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Dylan Cease
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Colt Emerson SS10-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Luke Raley RF60-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
Cole Wilcox RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Jonatan Clase LF60-DAY-IL
Josh Smith 2B10-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
Shane Bieber SP15-DAY-IL
Joe Mantiply RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2
Elite Dylan Cease (2.56 ERA, A-, 35.6% K) creates a strong UNDER case (9.8% edge) and a historic NRFI edge (15.6%, historically well-supported a supportive track record) — market has overpriced the total when a genuine ace controls the early innings.
Key Factors
- Elite SP: Cease 2.56 ERA (A-, 35.6% K) far exceeds Hancock 3.64 ERA (B-, 22.8% K).
- Model-market gap: 6.25 vs 7.0 = 0.75 run edge to UNDER.
- NRFI edge historic: 15.6% (model 67.8%), historically well-supported a supportive track record — highest confidence historical support on slate.
- Cold weather (66.6F) reduces HR factor by ~5%.
- Both lineups missing key bats supports UNDER.
Risk Factors
- Extreme NRFI edge (15.6%) — monitor for late lineup or weather changes.
- Single-start variance always present even for elite arms.
- Retractable roof status (open/closed) could slightly affect HR factor.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TOR 50.6%
-14.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-14.5 pts
Total
7.0
+9.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.