TB vs OAK prediction for August 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 5.0 - TB 6.5. TB is favored with a 57.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 11.4 total runs.
OAK
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.5
TB
6.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKTB
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
10.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.7% (3,251 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
568
OAK
357
Projected
OAK 5.0 — TB 6.5
Actual
OAK 4 — TB 12
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Drew Rasmussen R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC30%90 mph24% whiff
FF29%96 mph25% whiff
SI23%95 mph12% whiff
R TBD
OAK
Weather Impact
Sutter Health Park
87°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.053 Total: 1.028
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.54ERA
3.95FIP
9.00K/9
2.87BB/9
1.12WHIP
OAK
5.20ERA
4.43FIP
9.68K/9
4.37BB/9
1.52WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
3.5 runs
52.7% win
OAK F5
2.6 runs
35.0% win
F5 Total
6.1
NRFI
50.6%
YRFI
49.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.12
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Shane McClanahan SP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Jax SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK8 injured
Jeffrey Springs SP15-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B10-DAY-IL
Mark Leiter Jr. RP60-DAY-IL
Shea Langeliers C10-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
OAK's home starter is TBD (unconfirmed), making model valuation of this game unreliable, while the market's sharp money is heavily on TB (64.0% implied) versus the model's more modest 57.9% OAK read — the safer play is to wait for pitcher confirmation.
Key Factors
- TBD PITCHER: OAK's home starter is unconfirmed, directly undermining the model's reliability for this game.
- TB's Rasmussen (2.97 ERA, 26.8% K-rate, B-grade) is a quality starter; if OAK counters with a weak replacement, TB's true value could be even higher than market prices.
- Weather: 86.7F warm, 12.0mph wind blowing out (slight) = +0.5-1.0 runs, mild over tilt regardless of matchup outcome.
Risk Factors
- TBD pitcher creates fundamental model unreliability for this specific matchup.
- Sharp money disagreement with the model (64% TB market vs 57.9% OAK model) suggests the market may know something about OAK's pitching situation that isn't yet in this data.
- OAK home underdog historical support is weak (a supportive track record, small n=9).
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.