ARI vs COL prediction for September 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects COL 5.7 - ARI 6.3. ARI is favored with a 54.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 11.0. Model projects 12.0 total runs.
COL
5.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 11.0
ARI
6.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLARI
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
11.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.9% (4,023 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
468
COL
468
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael Soroka R
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SV32%81 mph35% whiff
FF32%94 mph12% whiff
CH12%86 mph19% whiff
Kyle Freeland L
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF23%91 mph10% whiff
KC22%82 mph32% whiff
FC21%88 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
70°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.101 Total: 1.050
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.14ERA
3.45FIP
8.07K/9
2.94BB/9
1.13WHIP
COL
4.80ERA
4.29FIP
7.82K/9
4.20BB/9
1.50WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
3.7 runs
48.4% win
COL F5
3.3 runs
39.9% win
F5 Total
7.1
NRFI
41.4%
YRFI
58.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.49
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
ARI5 injured
Tyler Locklear 1B60-DAY-IL
Ryan Thompson RP60-DAY IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY IL
Andrew Saalfrank RP60-DAY-IL
Cristian Mena RP60-DAY-IL
COL7 injured
Willi Castro 2B10-DAY IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
McCade Brown SP60-DAY-IL
RJ Petit RP60-DAY IL
Pierson Ohl RP60-DAY IL
+1 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.