ARI vs SEA prediction for May 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 4.9 - ARI 2.7. SEA is favored with a 73.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
SEA
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
ARI
2.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEAARI
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 73.9% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
135
SEA
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Merrill Kelly R
ARI
FF27%92 mph12% whiff
CH26%88 mph30% whiff
FC15%91 mph14% whiff
Bryce Miller R
SEA
FF41%97 mph10% whiff
SL23%89 mph43% whiff
FS20%86 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
63°F10 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.996 Total: 0.998
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.45ERA
3.73FIP
8.10K/9
2.70BB/9
1.04WHIP
SEA
2.96ERA
3.57FIP
9.16K/9
3.36BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-58.5% EV
-182
F5_ML AWAY
-41.6% EV
+118
ML AWAY
-35.2% EV
+120
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+29.9% EV
+150
F5_ML HOME
+23.0% EV
-147
ML HOME
+19.9% EV
-143
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
1.3 runs
18.2% win
SEA F5
3.3 runs
67.2% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
55.2%
YRFI
44.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.93
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
56%
No HR
16%
Luke Raley SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.303 | Barrel: 16.7% | vs Merrill Kelly | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
J.P. Crawford SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.190 | Barrel: 7.6% | vs Merrill Kelly | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Dominic Canzone SEA27.7%
ISO: 0.222 | Barrel: 10.5% | vs Merrill Kelly | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Merrill Kelly
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Bryce Miller
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Jordan Lawlar LF60-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Corbin Burnes SP60-DAY-IL
Pavin Smith 1B60-DAY-IL
A.J. Vukovich CFDAY-TO-DAY
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Cal Raleigh C10-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Spencer Packard OFDAY-TO-DAY
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
Logan Evans SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 73.8%
+29.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+29.9 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.