ARI vs SEA prediction for May 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 4.9 - ARI 2.7. SEA is favored with a 73.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
SEA
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
ARI
2.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEAARI
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 77.1% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
135
SEA
357
Pick Results
Dominic Canzone OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsWIN+0.35u
Colt Emerson OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsWIN+0.37u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Merrill Kelly R
ARI
FF27%92 mph12% whiff
CH26%88 mph30% whiff
FC15%91 mph14% whiff
Bryce Miller R
SEA
FF41%97 mph10% whiff
SL23%89 mph43% whiff
FS20%86 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
63°F10 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.996 Total: 0.998
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.45ERA
3.73FIP
8.10K/9
2.70BB/9
1.04WHIP
SEA
2.96ERA
3.57FIP
9.16K/9
3.36BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-58.5% EV
-182
F5_ML AWAY
-41.6% EV
+118
ML AWAY
-35.2% EV
+120
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+29.9% EV
+150
F5_ML HOME
+23.0% EV
-147
ML HOME
+19.9% EV
-143
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
1.3 runs
18.2% win
SEA F5
3.3 runs
67.2% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
55.2%
YRFI
44.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.93
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
56%
No HR
16%
Luke Raley SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.303 | Barrel: 16.7% | vs Merrill Kelly | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
J.P. Crawford SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.190 | Barrel: 7.6% | vs Merrill Kelly | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Dominic Canzone SEA27.7%
ISO: 0.222 | Barrel: 10.5% | vs Merrill Kelly | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Merrill Kelly
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Bryce Miller
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Jordan Lawlar LF60-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Corbin Burnes SP60-DAY-IL
Pavin Smith 1B60-DAY-IL
A.J. Vukovich CFDAY-TO-DAY
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Cal Raleigh C10-DAY-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 3B60-DAY-IL
Spencer Packard OFDAY-TO-DAY
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Teddy McGraw SPDAY-TO-DAY
Logan Evans SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
SEA home favorite 19.9% edge (BET scenario above uses this). However, review shows edge still upper range (15-20%) and zone YELLOW (56.4% WR). Miller 2.43 ERA vs Kelly 5.67 ERA is mismatch but ARI injuries already priced likely. Reconsider: BET recommendation stands but list it separately.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 73.8%
+29.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+29.9 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →