ATL vs CIN prediction for May 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CIN 6.7 - ATL 5.8. CIN is favored with a 58.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 12.6 total runs.
CIN
6.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
ATL
5.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
CINATL
+1.5
Run Line (CIN)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.2% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
468
CIN
579
Projected
CIN 6.7 — ATL 5.8
Actual
CIN 3 — ATL 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Grant Holmes R
ATL
SL38%85 mph43% whiff
FF34%94 mph11% whiff
CU11%83 mph32% whiff
Chris Paddack R
CIN
FF34%93 mph14% whiff
CH26%85 mph27% whiff
FC12%86 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Great American Ball Park
82°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.043 Total: 1.022
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
2.45ERA
2.84FIP
9.80K/9
2.57BB/9
0.99WHIP
CIN
4.71ERA
5.30FIP
9.18K/9
5.98BB/9
1.49WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-34.0% EV
-120
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-26.9% EV
+114
TOTAL OVER 9.5
+26.6% EV
-102
F5_ML AWAY
-23.6% EV
-128
ML AWAY
-23.1% EV
-132
F5 OVER 5.5
+21.1% EV
+108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
3.1 runs
35.3% win
CIN F5
4.2 runs
54.1% win
F5 Total
7.3
NRFI
46.7%
YRFI
53.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.26
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.5
Over 0.5 HR
97%
Over 1.5 HR
86%
No HR
3%
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.301 | Barrel: 16.7% | vs Chris Paddack | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Michael Harris II ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs Chris Paddack | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
JJ Bleday CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.363 | Barrel: 17.8% | vs Grant Holmes | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Grant Holmes
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Chris Paddack
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Drake Baldwin C10-DAY-IL
AJ Smith-Shawver SP60-DAY-IL
Hurston Waldrep SP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Farmer DH10-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CIN8 injured
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
Rhett Lowder SP15-DAY-IL
Jose Trevino C10-DAY-IL
Emilio Pagan RP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CIN 58.9%
-17.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-17.6 pts
Total
9.5
+26.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →