ATL vs CIN prediction for May 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CIN 6.7 - ATL 5.8. CIN is favored with a 58.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 12.6 total runs.
CIN
6.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
ATL
5.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
CINATL
+1.5
Run Line (CIN)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.1% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
468
CIN
579
Projected
CIN 6.7 — ATL 5.8
Actual
CIN 3 — ATL 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Grant Holmes R
ATL
SL38%85 mph43% whiff
FF34%94 mph11% whiff
CU11%83 mph32% whiff
Chris Paddack R
CIN
FF34%93 mph14% whiff
CH26%85 mph27% whiff
FC12%86 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Great American Ball Park
82°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.043 Total: 1.022
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
2.45ERA
2.84FIP
9.80K/9
2.57BB/9
0.99WHIP
CIN
4.71ERA
5.30FIP
9.18K/9
5.98BB/9
1.49WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-34.0% EV
-120
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-26.9% EV
+114
TOTAL OVER 9.5
+26.6% EV
-102
F5_ML AWAY
-23.6% EV
-128
ML AWAY
-23.1% EV
-132
F5 OVER 5.5
+21.1% EV
+108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
3.1 runs
35.3% win
CIN F5
4.2 runs
54.1% win
F5 Total
7.3
NRFI
46.7%
YRFI
53.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.26
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.5
Over 0.5 HR
97%
Over 1.5 HR
86%
No HR
3%
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.301 | Barrel: 16.7% | vs Chris Paddack | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Michael Harris II ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs Chris Paddack | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
JJ Bleday CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.363 | Barrel: 17.8% | vs Grant Holmes | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Grant Holmes
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Chris Paddack
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Drake Baldwin C10-DAY-IL
AJ Smith-Shawver SP60-DAY-IL
Hurston Waldrep SP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Farmer DH10-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CIN8 injured
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
Rhett Lowder SP15-DAY-IL
Jose Trevino C10-DAY-IL
Emilio Pagan RP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CIN 58.9%
-17.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-17.6 pts
Total
9.5
+26.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.