CHC vs STL prediction for May 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 4.2 - CHC 4.7. CHC is favored with a 53.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
STL
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CHC
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLCHC
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.7% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
357
STL
246
Projected
STL 4.2 — CHC 4.7
Actual
STL 6 — CHC 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shota Imanaga L
CHC
FF42%92 mph16% whiff
FS35%83 mph41% whiff
ST14%82 mph40% whiff
Andre Pallante R
STL
FF31%95 mph13% whiff
SL28%87 mph34% whiff
KC19%78 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
86°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.078 Total: 1.042
thin air, 7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
3.89ERA
5.11FIP
8.24K/9
4.09BB/9
1.33WHIP
STL
4.36ERA
4.35FIP
8.23K/9
4.51BB/9
1.39WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-37.9% EV
-152
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-14.2% EV
-104
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-9.4% EV
+126
F5_ML AWAY
-7.0% EV
-130
ML AWAY
-5.6% EV
-132
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+4.1% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.5 runs
43.8% win
STL F5
2.3 runs
40.2% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
55.8%
YRFI
44.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.94
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
67%
No HR
10%
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.318 | Barrel: 16.2% | vs Shota Imanaga | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Ian Happ CHC27.4%
ISO: 0.221 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Andre Pallante | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Michael Conforto CHC21.2%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 11.9% | vs Andre Pallante | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Shota Imanaga
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Andre Pallante
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
STL8 injured
Nathan Church LF10-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B10-DAY-IL
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 53.3%
-37.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-37.9 pts
Total
7.5
+4.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.