CHC vs STL prediction for May 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 4.2 - CHC 4.7. CHC is favored with a 53.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
STL
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CHC
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLCHC
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
357
STL
246
Projected
STL 4.2 — CHC 4.7
Actual
STL 6 — CHC 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shota Imanaga L
CHC
FF42%92 mph16% whiff
FS35%83 mph41% whiff
ST14%82 mph40% whiff
Andre Pallante R
STL
FF31%95 mph13% whiff
SL28%87 mph34% whiff
KC19%78 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
86°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.078 Total: 1.042
thin air, 7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
3.89ERA
5.11FIP
8.24K/9
4.09BB/9
1.33WHIP
STL
4.36ERA
4.35FIP
8.23K/9
4.51BB/9
1.39WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-37.9% EV
-152
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-14.2% EV
-104
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-9.4% EV
+126
F5_ML AWAY
-7.0% EV
-130
ML AWAY
-5.6% EV
-132
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+4.1% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.5 runs
43.8% win
STL F5
2.3 runs
40.2% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
55.8%
YRFI
44.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.94
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
67%
No HR
10%
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.318 | Barrel: 16.2% | vs Shota Imanaga | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Ian Happ CHC27.4%
ISO: 0.221 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Andre Pallante | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Michael Conforto CHC21.2%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 11.9% | vs Andre Pallante | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Shota Imanaga
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Andre Pallante
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Matthew Boyd SP15-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Birdsell RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jeff Brigham RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
STL8 injured
Nathan Church LF10-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B10-DAY-IL
Lars Nootbaar LF60-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 53.3%
-37.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-37.9 pts
Total
7.5
+4.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →