LAA vs TB prediction for May 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 5.4 - LAA 3.3. TB is favored with a 71.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
TB
5.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
LAA
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBLAA
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 70.1% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
135
TB
357
Projected
TB 5.4 — LAA 3.3
Actual
TB 8 — LAA 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Walbert Ureña R
LAA
CH34%91 mph32% whiff
SI31%98 mph13% whiff
FF20%98 mph20% whiff
Nick Martinez R
TB
SI29%92 mph6% whiff
CH28%79 mph30% whiff
FC20%89 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
84°F10 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.50ERA
4.77FIP
9.00K/9
5.13BB/9
1.44WHIP
TB
4.13ERA
3.82FIP
8.29K/9
3.40BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-53.6% EV
-161
F5_ML AWAY
-31.5% EV
+122
ML AWAY
-26.5% EV
+136
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+20.2% EV
+134
F5_ML HOME
+14.8% EV
-152
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-14.0% EV
-112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
1.6 runs
23.1% win
TB F5
3.4 runs
62.4% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
52.5%
YRFI
47.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.03
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
61%
No HR
13%
Mike Trout LAA28.1%
ISO: 0.247 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Nick Martinez | Park: 0.92x
Junior Caminero TB22.1%
ISO: 0.229 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs Walbert Ureña | Park: 0.92x
Zach Neto LAA21.3%
ISO: 0.214 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Nick Martinez | Park: 0.92x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Walbert Ureña
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Nick Martinez
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA7 injured
Nolan Schanuel 1B10-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B10-DAY-IL
Travis d'Arnaud C10-DAY-IL
Robert Stephenson RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
TB8 injured
Taylor Walls SSDAY-TO-DAY
Michael Grove RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Jesse Scholtens RP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Jax RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jonny DeLuca RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 71.0%
+20.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+20.2 pts
Total
8.0
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.