LAA vs TB prediction for May 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 5.4 - LAA 3.3. TB is favored with a 71.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
TB
5.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
LAA
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBLAA
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 74.2% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
135
TB
357
Projected
TB 5.4 — LAA 3.3
Actual
TB 8 — LAA 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Walbert Ureña R
LAA
CH34%91 mph32% whiff
SI31%98 mph13% whiff
FF20%98 mph20% whiff
Nick Martinez R
TB
SI29%92 mph6% whiff
CH28%79 mph30% whiff
FC20%89 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
84°F10 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.50ERA
4.77FIP
9.00K/9
5.13BB/9
1.44WHIP
TB
4.13ERA
3.82FIP
8.29K/9
3.40BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-53.6% EV
-161
F5_ML AWAY
-31.5% EV
+122
ML AWAY
-26.5% EV
+136
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+20.2% EV
+134
F5_ML HOME
+14.8% EV
-152
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-14.0% EV
-112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
1.6 runs
23.1% win
TB F5
3.4 runs
62.4% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
52.5%
YRFI
47.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.03
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
61%
No HR
13%
Mike Trout LAA28.1%
ISO: 0.247 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Nick Martinez | Park: 0.92x
Junior Caminero TB22.1%
ISO: 0.229 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs Walbert Ureña | Park: 0.92x
Zach Neto LAA21.3%
ISO: 0.214 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Nick Martinez | Park: 0.92x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Walbert Ureña
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Nick Martinez
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA7 injured
Nolan Schanuel 1B10-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B10-DAY-IL
Travis d'Arnaud C10-DAY-IL
Robert Stephenson RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
TB8 injured
Taylor Walls SSDAY-TO-DAY
Michael Grove RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Jesse Scholtens RP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Jax RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jonny DeLuca RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 71.0%
+20.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+20.2 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →