BOS vs CLE prediction for May 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 5.9 - BOS 4.0. CLE is favored with a 68.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.9 total runs.
CLE
5.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
BOS
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLEBOS
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.5% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
246
CLE
468
Projected
CLE 5.9 — BOS 4.0
Actual
CLE 4 — BOS 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tyler Samaniego L
BOS
SI44%93 mph10% whiff
FF23%94 mph16% whiff
ST18%82 mph22% whiff
Slade Cecconi R
CLE
FF34%93 mph18% whiff
FC25%88 mph18% whiff
SI17%93 mph9% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
75°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.990 Total: 0.992
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.75ERA
4.22FIP
9.12K/9
3.43BB/9
1.26WHIP
CLE
3.65ERA
3.84FIP
10.53K/9
3.93BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-53.0% EV
-200
ML AWAY
-29.1% EV
+108
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-28.4% EV
-114
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+27.1% EV
+162
F5_ML AWAY
-25.0% EV
+100
ML HOME
+18.0% EV
-127
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
2.2 runs
29.6% win
CLE F5
3.5 runs
56.9% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
49.1%
YRFI
50.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.13
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
72%
No HR
8%
Jarren Duran BOS26.2%
ISO: 0.195 | Barrel: 8.4% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Travis Bazzana CLE21.8%
ISO: 0.129 | Barrel: 7.1% | vs Tyler Samaniego | Park: 0.97x
Kyle Manzardo CLE20.2%
ISO: 0.137 | Barrel: 7.2% | vs Tyler Samaniego | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tyler Samaniego
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Slade Cecconi
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Nick Sogard 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Roman Anthony LF10-DAY-IL
Garrett Whitlock RP15-DAY-IL
Triston Casas 1B60-DAY-IL
Patrick Sandoval SP60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE4 injured
Gabriel Arias SS60-DAY-IL
Steven Kwan CFBEREAVEMENT
Erik Sabrowski RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 68.7%
+27.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+27.1 pts
Total
8.0
+8.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.