BOS vs CLE prediction for May 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 5.9 - BOS 4.0. CLE is favored with a 68.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.9 total runs.
CLE
5.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
BOS
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLEBOS
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 67.3% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
246
CLE
468
Projected
CLE 5.9 — BOS 4.0
Actual
CLE 4 — BOS 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tyler Samaniego L
BOS
SI44%93 mph10% whiff
FF23%94 mph16% whiff
ST18%82 mph22% whiff
Slade Cecconi R
CLE
FF34%93 mph18% whiff
FC25%88 mph18% whiff
SI17%93 mph9% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
75°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.990 Total: 0.992
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.75ERA
4.22FIP
9.12K/9
3.43BB/9
1.26WHIP
CLE
3.65ERA
3.84FIP
10.53K/9
3.93BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-53.0% EV
-200
ML AWAY
-29.1% EV
+108
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-28.4% EV
-114
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+27.1% EV
+162
F5_ML AWAY
-25.0% EV
+100
ML HOME
+18.0% EV
-127
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
2.2 runs
29.6% win
CLE F5
3.5 runs
56.9% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
49.1%
YRFI
50.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.13
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
72%
No HR
8%
Jarren Duran BOS26.2%
ISO: 0.195 | Barrel: 8.4% | vs Slade Cecconi | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Travis Bazzana CLE21.8%
ISO: 0.129 | Barrel: 7.1% | vs Tyler Samaniego | Park: 0.97x
Kyle Manzardo CLE20.2%
ISO: 0.137 | Barrel: 7.2% | vs Tyler Samaniego | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tyler Samaniego
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Slade Cecconi
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Nick Sogard 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Roman Anthony LF10-DAY-IL
Garrett Whitlock RP15-DAY-IL
Triston Casas 1B60-DAY-IL
Patrick Sandoval SP60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE4 injured
Gabriel Arias SS60-DAY-IL
Steven Kwan CFBEREAVEMENT
Erik Sabrowski RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 68.7%
+27.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+27.1 pts
Total
8.0
+8.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →