TOR vs BAL prediction for May 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 5.3 - TOR 4.6. BAL is favored with a 58.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.9 total runs.
BAL
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TOR
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALTOR
+1.5
Run Line (BAL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.0% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
357
BAL
357
Projected
BAL 5.3 — TOR 4.6
Actual
BAL 5 — TOR 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Adam Macko L
TOR
SL40%86 mph21% whiff
FF36%95 mph12% whiff
CH13%86 mph0% whiff
Trevor Rogers L
BAL
FF42%93 mph18% whiff
CH24%87 mph22% whiff
SI12%93 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
75°F10 mph wind
HR: 0.978 Total: 0.985
9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.42ERA
3.19FIP
10.07K/9
3.47BB/9
1.27WHIP
BAL
4.28ERA
3.92FIP
9.20K/9
3.74BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-27.9% EV
-200
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-18.7% EV
+164
ML AWAY
-14.8% EV
-102
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-14.6% EV
-102
F5_ML AWAY
-9.4% EV
+100
ML HOME
+6.0% EV
-116
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
2.5 runs
38.6% win
BAL F5
3.0 runs
48.0% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
52.2%
YRFI
47.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.02
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
72%
No HR
8%
Adley Rutschman BAL29.0%
ISO: 0.222 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Adam Macko | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Coby Mayo BAL28.9%
ISO: 0.293 | Barrel: 7.3% | vs Adam Macko | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Gunnar Henderson BAL24.2%
ISO: 0.262 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Adam Macko | Park: 1.03x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Adam Macko
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Trevor Rogers
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Dylan Cease SP15-DAY-IL
Joe Mantiply RP15-DAY-IL
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Lazaro Estrada RP60-DAY-IL
Lenyn Sosa 2B10-DAY-IL
Jose Berrios SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Levi Wells PDAY-TO-DAY
Yennier Cano RPDAY-TO-DAY
Dylan Beavers RF10-DAY-IL
Cade Povich SP15-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 58.2%
-27.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-27.9 pts
Total
8.5
+4.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →