TOR vs BAL prediction for May 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 5.3 - TOR 4.6. BAL is favored with a 58.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.9 total runs.
BAL
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TOR
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALTOR
+1.5
Run Line (BAL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
357
BAL
357
Projected
BAL 5.3 — TOR 4.6
Actual
BAL 5 — TOR 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Adam Macko L
TOR
SL40%86 mph21% whiff
FF36%95 mph12% whiff
CH13%86 mph0% whiff
Trevor Rogers L
BAL
FF42%93 mph18% whiff
CH24%87 mph22% whiff
SI12%93 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
75°F10 mph wind
HR: 0.978 Total: 0.985
9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.42ERA
3.19FIP
10.07K/9
3.47BB/9
1.27WHIP
BAL
4.28ERA
3.92FIP
9.20K/9
3.74BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-27.9% EV
-200
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-18.7% EV
+164
ML AWAY
-14.8% EV
-102
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-14.6% EV
-102
F5_ML AWAY
-9.4% EV
+100
ML HOME
+6.0% EV
-116
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
2.5 runs
38.6% win
BAL F5
3.0 runs
48.0% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
52.2%
YRFI
47.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.02
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
72%
No HR
8%
Adley Rutschman BAL29.0%
ISO: 0.222 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Adam Macko | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Coby Mayo BAL28.9%
ISO: 0.293 | Barrel: 7.3% | vs Adam Macko | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Gunnar Henderson BAL24.2%
ISO: 0.262 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Adam Macko | Park: 1.03x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Adam Macko
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Trevor Rogers
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Dylan Cease SP15-DAY-IL
Joe Mantiply RP15-DAY-IL
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Lazaro Estrada RP60-DAY-IL
Lenyn Sosa 2B10-DAY-IL
Jose Berrios SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Levi Wells PDAY-TO-DAY
Yennier Cano RPDAY-TO-DAY
Dylan Beavers RF10-DAY-IL
Cade Povich SP15-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 58.2%
-27.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-27.9 pts
Total
8.5
+4.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.