SD vs WSH prediction for May 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects WSH 6.1 - SD 4.9. WSH is favored with a 62.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 11.0 total runs.
WSH
6.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
SD
4.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHSD
+1.5
Run Line (WSH)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.9% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
357
WSH
468
Projected
WSH 6.1 — SD 4.9
Actual
WSH 5 — SD 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Lucas Giolito R
SD
FF48%93 mph14% whiff
SL25%86 mph29% whiff
CH24%81 mph25% whiff
Paxton Schultz R
WSH
FC44%89 mph16% whiff
FF32%94 mph18% whiff
CH18%86 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
79°F11 mph wind
HR: 0.971 Total: 0.981
11mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SD
3.16ERA
3.49FIP
8.28K/9
3.53BB/9
1.21WHIP
WSH
4.48ERA
4.49FIP
8.33K/9
3.63BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-24.9% EV
+160
ML AWAY
-21.9% EV
-102
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-21.6% EV
-192
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-18.9% EV
-122
F5_ML AWAY
-15.3% EV
+102
ML HOME
+12.6% EV
-116
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
2.8 runs
35.5% win
WSH F5
3.7 runs
52.5% win
F5 Total
6.5
NRFI
47.0%
YRFI
53.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.27
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.5
Over 0.5 HR
97%
Over 1.5 HR
86%
No HR
3%
Gavin Sheets SD30.0%
ISO: 0.283 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Paxton Schultz | Platoon: 1.12x
CJ Abrams WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.313 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Lucas Giolito | Platoon: 1.12x
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.297 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Lucas Giolito | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Lucas Giolito
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Paxton Schultz
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL
German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL
Luis Campusano C10-DAY-IL
Jhony Brito RP60-DAY-IL
Yu Darvish SPOUT
Blake Hunt CDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
WSH8 injured
Max Kranick RP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Stuart SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jake Irvin SP15-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
WSH 62.6%
-21.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-21.6 pts
Total
9.5
+10.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.