Who is predicted to win SD vs WSH on May 29, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, WSH is favored with a 62.6% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is WSH 6.1 - SD 4.9.

How did SD vs WSH on May 29, 2026 end?

Final score: WSH 5 - SD 7. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

SD vs WSH Prediction & Picks — May 29, 2026

SD vs WSH prediction for May 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects WSH 6.1 - SD 4.9. WSH is favored with a 62.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 11.0 total runs.

WSH

6.1

Projected Score

VS O/U 9.5

4.9

Projected Score

Win Probability

62.6%

37.4%

WSHSD

+1.5

Run Line (WSH)

9.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.6% (2,300 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

357

WSH

468

Projected

WSH 6.1 — SD 4.9

Actual

WSH 5 — SD 7

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Lucas Giolito R

FF48%93 mph14% whiff

SL25%86 mph29% whiff

CH24%81 mph25% whiff

Paxton Schultz R

WSH

FC44%89 mph16% whiff

FF32%94 mph18% whiff

CH18%86 mph25% whiff

Weather Impact

Nationals Park

79°F11 mph wind

HR: 0.971 Total: 0.981

11mph in

Bullpen Comparison

3.16ERA

3.49FIP

8.28K/9

3.53BB/9

1.21WHIP

WSH

4.48ERA

4.49FIP

8.33K/9

3.63BB/9

1.33WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5

-24.9% EV

+160

ML AWAY

-21.9% EV

-102

RUN_LINE HOME +1.5

-21.6% EV

-192

TOTAL UNDER 9.5

-18.9% EV

-122

F5_ML AWAY

-15.3% EV

+102

ML HOME

+12.6% EV

-116

First 5 Innings & NRFI

SD F5

2.8 runs

35.5% win

WSH F5

3.7 runs

52.5% win

F5 Total

6.5

NRFI

47.0%

YRFI

53.0%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

1.27

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

3.5

Over 0.5 HR

97%

Over 1.5 HR

86%

No HR

Gavin Sheets SD30.0%

ISO: 0.283 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Paxton Schultz | Platoon: 1.12x

CJ Abrams WSH30.0%

ISO: 0.313 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Lucas Giolito | Platoon: 1.12x

James Wood WSH30.0%

ISO: 0.297 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Lucas Giolito | Platoon: 1.12x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Lucas Giolito

0.0 K projected

SD | K/9: 0.0

Paxton Schultz

0.0 K projected

WSH | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

SD8 injured

Matt Waldron SP15-DAY-IL

German Marquez SP15-DAY-IL

Luis Campusano C10-DAY-IL

Jhony Brito RP60-DAY-IL

Yu Darvish SPOUT

Blake Hunt CDAY-TO-DAY

+2 more

WSH8 injured

Max Kranick RP60-DAY-IL

Tyler Stuart SPDAY-TO-DAY

Jake Irvin SP15-DAY-IL

DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL

Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL

Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL

+2 more

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

WSH 62.6%

-21.6 pts

Run Line