MIA vs NYM prediction for May 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 4.7 - MIA 4.2. NYM is favored with a 57.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
NYM
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIA
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMMIA
+1.5
Run Line (NYM)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.1% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
246
NYM
357
Projected
NYM 4.7 — MIA 4.2
Actual
NYM 9 — MIA 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Max Meyer R
MIA
SL27%90 mph40% whiff
ST26%89 mph37% whiff
FF24%95 mph13% whiff
Freddy Peralta R
NYM
FF55%94 mph20% whiff
CH22%87 mph23% whiff
CU13%80 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
76°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.009 Total: 1.003
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
3.43ERA
3.52FIP
9.59K/9
4.45BB/9
1.18WHIP
NYM
3.72ERA
3.62FIP
9.39K/9
3.79BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-30.9% EV
-204
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-16.8% EV
+168
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-16.6% EV
-115
F5_ML AWAY
-15.5% EV
-110
ML AWAY
-13.8% EV
-104
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+8.0% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
2.1 runs
35.9% win
NYM F5
2.6 runs
48.6% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
57.4%
YRFI
42.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.91
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
10%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.353 | Barrel: 16.0% | vs Max Meyer | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Liam Hicks MIA19.2%
ISO: 0.239 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Freddy Peralta | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Owen Caissie MIA14.9%
ISO: 0.165 | Barrel: 7.6% | vs Freddy Peralta | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Max Meyer
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Freddy Peralta
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Eury Perez SP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Conine LF10-DAY-IL
Kemp Alderman RFDAY-TO-DAY
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
Francisco Alvarez C10-DAY-IL
Tyrone Taylor CF10-DAY-IL
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 57.2%
-30.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-30.9 pts
Total
7.5
+8.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →