MIA vs NYM prediction for May 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 4.7 - MIA 4.2. NYM is favored with a 57.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
NYM
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIA
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMMIA
+1.5
Run Line (NYM)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.5% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
246
NYM
357
Projected
NYM 4.7 — MIA 4.2
Actual
NYM 9 — MIA 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Max Meyer R
MIA
SL27%90 mph40% whiff
ST26%89 mph37% whiff
FF24%95 mph13% whiff
Freddy Peralta R
NYM
FF55%94 mph20% whiff
CH22%87 mph23% whiff
CU13%80 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
76°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.009 Total: 1.003
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
3.43ERA
3.52FIP
9.59K/9
4.45BB/9
1.18WHIP
NYM
3.72ERA
3.62FIP
9.39K/9
3.79BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-30.9% EV
-204
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-16.8% EV
+168
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-16.6% EV
-115
F5_ML AWAY
-15.5% EV
-110
ML AWAY
-13.8% EV
-104
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+8.0% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
2.1 runs
35.9% win
NYM F5
2.6 runs
48.6% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
57.4%
YRFI
42.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.91
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
10%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.353 | Barrel: 16.0% | vs Max Meyer | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Liam Hicks MIA19.2%
ISO: 0.239 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Freddy Peralta | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Owen Caissie MIA14.9%
ISO: 0.165 | Barrel: 7.6% | vs Freddy Peralta | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Max Meyer
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Freddy Peralta
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Eury Perez SP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Conine LF10-DAY-IL
Kemp Alderman RFDAY-TO-DAY
Thomas White SPDAY-TO-DAY
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
Francisco Alvarez C10-DAY-IL
Tyrone Taylor CF10-DAY-IL
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 57.2%
-30.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-30.9 pts
Total
7.5
+8.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.