ATL vs CWS prediction for August 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 5.5 - ATL 5.4. CWS is favored with a 52.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.9 total runs.
CWS
5.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
ATL
5.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSATL
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (3,260 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
357
CWS
467
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Grant Holmes R
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL36%85 mph37% whiff
FF29%94 mph12% whiff
SI12%93 mph13% whiff
Anthony Kay L
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF23%96 mph17% whiff
ST22%83 mph36% whiff
FC18%92 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Rate Field
75°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.046 Total: 1.024
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
3.01ERA
3.53FIP
9.75K/9
3.19BB/9
1.11WHIP
CWS
4.07ERA
4.37FIP
9.14K/9
4.61BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
3.1 runs
41.8% win
CWS F5
3.3 runs
45.9% win
F5 Total
6.4
NRFI
46.4%
YRFI
53.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.27
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
ATL7 injured
Reynaldo Lopez RP15-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Jurickson Profar LFSUSPENSION
+1 more
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.