TOR vs TB prediction for August 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 4.4 - TOR 3.4. TB is favored with a 57.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
TB
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
TOR
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBTOR
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.4% (3,260 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
135
TB
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shane Bieber R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%92 mph9% whiff
CH19%88 mph19% whiff
KC19%83 mph33% whiff
Ian Seymour L
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH30%83 mph36% whiff
FF27%91 mph22% whiff
ST22%82 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
91°F5 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.68ERA
4.16FIP
8.09K/9
3.81BB/9
1.29WHIP
TB
3.90ERA
4.11FIP
8.71K/9
2.79BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
1.9 runs
31.6% win
TB F5
2.7 runs
52.6% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
58.0%
YRFI
42.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Brett Bateman CFDAY-TO-DAY
Joe Mantiply RP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Arrighetti SP15-DAY-IL
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B7-DAY IL
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Griffin Jax SP15-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
More Projections Today
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.