STL vs CIN prediction for August 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CIN 4.7 - STL 4.4. CIN is favored with a 52.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.1 total runs.
CIN
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
STL
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
CINSTL
+1.5
Run Line (CIN)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (3,260 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
246
CIN
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael McGreevy R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF25%92 mph12% whiff
CH20%87 mph25% whiff
SI16%91 mph9% whiff
Brady Singer R
CIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI49%91 mph15% whiff
SL26%83 mph29% whiff
ST15%82 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Great American Ball Park
76°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.060 Total: 1.032
thin air, 5mph out
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.18ERA
4.33FIP
7.97K/9
4.17BB/9
1.34WHIP
CIN
4.19ERA
4.71FIP
9.15K/9
4.86BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.2 runs
35.4% win
CIN F5
2.8 runs
49.1% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
53.0%
YRFI
47.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.01
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
STL2 injured
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
CIN6 injured
Spencer Steer 1B10-DAY-IL
Tony Santillan RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Williamson SP60-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Dunn CF60-DAY-IL
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.