SF vs CLE prediction for August 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 4.1 - SF 4.7. SF is favored with a 52.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
CLE
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
SF
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLESF
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (3,260 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
357
CLE
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Landen Roupp R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI34%93 mph8% whiff
CU26%77 mph33% whiff
CH21%87 mph27% whiff
Gavin Williams R
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST28%88 mph41% whiff
FF26%97 mph25% whiff
CU21%83 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
78°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.001 Total: 0.998
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.80ERA
4.64FIP
7.34K/9
4.65BB/9
1.49WHIP
CLE
3.60ERA
3.87FIP
9.99K/9
3.90BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
2.7 runs
49.7% win
CLE F5
2.2 runs
34.8% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
52.4%
YRFI
47.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.04
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
Daniel Susac C60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF60-DAY-IL
Jesus Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Logan Webb SPDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Chapman 3B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE6 injured
Chase DeLauter RFDAY-TO-DAY
Jo Adell RFDAY-TO-DAY
Slade Cecconi SP15-DAY-IL
Rhys Hoskins 1B10-DAY-IL
Colin Holderman RPDAY-TO-DAY
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.