WSH vs TEX prediction for August 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TEX 4.4 - WSH 3.7. TEX is favored with a 55.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
TEX
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
WSH
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXWSH
-1.5
Run Line (TEX)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.1% (3,260 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
246
TEX
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andrew Alvarez L
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CU30%83 mph31% whiff
FF28%92 mph9% whiff
SL23%84 mph36% whiff
Jacob deGrom R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%97 mph23% whiff
SL36%91 mph37% whiff
CH13%90 mph42% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
102°F10 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.090 Total: 1.047
thin air, 5mph out
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
5.47ERA
5.21FIP
9.00K/9
4.74BB/9
1.56WHIP
TEX
4.30ERA
4.39FIP
8.39K/9
3.72BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
2.0 runs
39.8% win
TEX F5
2.2 runs
42.6% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
58.0%
YRFI
42.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.84
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
James Wood RF10-DAY-IL
Drew Millas C10-DAY-IL
Richard Lovelady RP60-DAY-IL
Connelly Early SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Nathan Eovaldi SP15-DAY-IL
Jose Corniell RP60-DAY-IL
Jalen Beeks RP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Higashioka C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.