SEA vs MIL prediction for August 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 5.6 - SEA 4.2. MIL is favored with a 60.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.8 total runs.
MIL
5.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SEA
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILSEA
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.7% (3,260 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
246
MIL
468
Starting Pitcher Matchup
George Kirby R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST29%87 mph26% whiff
FF29%97 mph20% whiff
SI21%97 mph11% whiff
Robert Gasser L
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST26%80 mph28% whiff
SI24%92 mph11% whiff
FF22%93 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
78°F3 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.021 Total: 1.009
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.70ERA
3.95FIP
8.99K/9
3.38BB/9
1.30WHIP
MIL
3.32ERA
3.56FIP
9.18K/9
3.66BB/9
1.24WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.4 runs
34.4% win
MIL F5
3.3 runs
52.8% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
49.2%
YRFI
50.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.13
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Luke Raley RF60-DAY-IL
J.P. Crawford SS10-DAY-IL
Bryan Woo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Colt Emerson SS10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIL8 injured
Sal Frelick RF10-DAY-IL
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
Abner Uribe RP15-DAY-IL
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.