NYY vs BAL prediction for August 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 3.5 - NYY 4.6. NYY is favored with a 56.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
BAL
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYY
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALNYY
+1.5
Run Line (BAL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.1% (3,260 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
357
BAL
245
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gerrit Cole R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%97 mph21% whiff
SL19%90 mph25% whiff
CH14%86 mph19% whiff
Kyle Bradish R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI35%95 mph9% whiff
SL26%87 mph34% whiff
CU22%85 mph39% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
77°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.018 Total: 1.008
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.01ERA
3.94FIP
8.49K/9
3.61BB/9
1.21WHIP
BAL
4.38ERA
3.92FIP
8.70K/9
3.74BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.5 runs
47.6% win
BAL F5
2.0 runs
35.8% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
56.0%
YRFI
44.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.90
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
NYY7 injured
Ryan McMahon 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Cody Bellinger LF10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
+1 more
BAL8 injured
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
Keegan Akin RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.