FINAL: MIN 9 — BAL 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIN 3.3 - BAL 3.8 (BAL at 53.2% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.0 total runs.
MIN
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
BAL
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINBAL
+1.5
Run Line (MIN)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
BALMIN L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.1% (3,223 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
246
MIN
135
Projected
MIN 3.3 — BAL 3.8
Actual
MIN 9 — BAL 5
Pick Results
BAL @ MIN NRFInrfiWIN+0.42u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Trevor Rogers L
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%94 mph21% whiff
CH22%87 mph22% whiff
ST13%78 mph31% whiff
Dean Kremer R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FS29%83 mph38% whiff
FF24%93 mph13% whiff
SI16%92 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
88°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.028 Total: 1.013
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.33ERA
4.01FIP
8.62K/9
3.75BB/9
1.33WHIP
MIN
4.04ERA
3.85FIP
9.20K/9
3.93BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-17.9% EV
-108
F5_ML HOME
-9.5% EV
+100
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+8.1% EV
-114
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-5.8% EV
-196
NRFI NRFI
+5.3% EV
-120
ML HOME
-5.1% EV
-109
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.0 runs
44.6% win
MIN F5
1.7 runs
35.6% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
61.1%
YRFI
38.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.73
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
59%
No HR
14%
Pete Alonso BAL27.4%
ISO: 0.237 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs Dean Kremer | Park: 0.99x
Ryan Jeffers MIN21.6%
ISO: 0.159 | Barrel: 12.5% | vs Trevor Rogers | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Royce Lewis MIN21.1%
ISO: 0.217 | Barrel: 9.5% | vs Trevor Rogers | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Trevor Rogers
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Dean Kremer
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Samuel Basallo C10-DAY-IL
Chris Bassitt SP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIN8 injured
Zebby Matthews SPDAY-TO-DAY
Joe Ryan SP15-DAY-IL
Byron Buxton CF10-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Away ML shows modest +1.7% edge but trapped in weak historical support; real value is UNDER 8.5 (+8.1%, 57.5% model WR) given thin air + opposing wind at Target Field.
Key Factors
- Pitcher advantage BAL: Rogers (4.54 ERA, 20.2% K) vs Kremer (6.40 ERA, 23.1% K) - 1.86 ERA gap
- Away combo historical support weakness: a supportive track record for away ML - structural underperformance
- UNDER value strong: Model 7.03 vs market 8.5 = -1.47 edge (+8.1% edge)
- Wind suppression: Target Field -4.2 tail wind + thin air creates pitcher-friendly conditions
- Model-market sync on sides: Only +1.7% edge after away underperformance adjustment
Risk Factors
- Away underdog structural underperformance contradicts broader a supportive track record trend
- UNDER historical support tiny sample: a supportive track record on only 6 tracked bets
- Pitcher advantage moderate, not elite - market close to correct
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 53.2%
-5.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-5.8 pts
Total
8.5
+8.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.