FINAL: OAK 6 — TB 10. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected OAK 3.9 - TB 4.1 (TB at 50.2% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
OAK
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
TB
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKTB
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TB W5OAK L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.8% (3,223 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
246
OAK
246
Projected
OAK 3.9 — TB 4.1
Actual
OAK 6 — TB 10
Pick Results
TB @ OAK NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
TB @ OAK NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Freddy Peralta R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF53%94 mph19% whiff
CH21%87 mph25% whiff
CU13%79 mph35% whiff
Jacob Lopez L
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%90 mph17% whiff
SL32%77 mph26% whiff
FC20%86 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Sutter Health Park
89°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.056 Total: 1.030
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.49ERA
3.96FIP
9.00K/9
2.87BB/9
1.11WHIP
OAK
5.04ERA
4.39FIP
9.69K/9
4.34BB/9
1.50WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-18.8% EV
-122
F5_ML AWAY
-15.2% EV
-147
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-13.0% EV
+100
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
+10.8% EV
+100
F5 UNDER 5.5
+9.3% EV
-141
F5_ML HOME
+8.0% EV
+118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.1 runs
38.6% win
OAK F5
2.2 runs
43.6% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
58.2%
YRFI
41.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.85
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
59%
No HR
14%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.230 | Barrel: 15.4% | vs Jacob Lopez | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Ryan Vilade TB30.0%
ISO: 0.234 | Barrel: 12.0% | vs Jacob Lopez | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Tyler Soderstrom OAK22.0%
ISO: 0.230 | Barrel: 11.5% | vs Freddy Peralta | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Freddy Peralta
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Jacob Lopez
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Griffin Jax SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Shane McClanahan SP15-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK8 injured
Jeffrey Springs SP15-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B10-DAY-IL
Mark Leiter Jr. RP60-DAY-IL
Shea Langeliers C10-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
OAK home starter is TBD, creating unresolvable data gap for directional play. NRFI (+1.8%, historically well-supported a supportive track record) is the only clean play; avoid sides.
Key Factors
- Nick Martinez away (2.86 ERA, elite 0.807 command): strong arm for TB
- OAK home pitcher TBD: cannot assess quality, form, or injury status
- historically well-supported NRFI: a supportive track record with +1.8% edge
- Market respects TB at -153, valuing Martinez profile despite OAK home advantage
- Total model 10.28 vs market 9.5: +0.78 edge for overs, but unreliable without pitcher context
Risk Factors
- TBD pitcher is deal-breaker for side plays - model extrapolation is low-confidence
- Risk of massive model failure if OAK starter is elite or surprise call-up
- NRFI only defensible peripheral market
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 50.2%
+4.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+4.5 pts
Total
9.5
+10.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.