MIL vs SD prediction for August 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 3.0 - MIL 3.3. MIL is favored with a 51.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 6.4 total runs.
SD
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
MIL
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDMIL
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.4% (3,223 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
135
SD
135
Projected
SD 3.0 — MIL 3.3
Actual
SD 3 — MIL 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Logan Henderson R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%93 mph21% whiff
CH33%82 mph34% whiff
FC19%87 mph15% whiff
Casey Mize R
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%94 mph21% whiff
SL26%88 mph25% whiff
FS24%88 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
75°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.024 Total: 1.012
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.39ERA
3.62FIP
9.29K/9
3.76BB/9
1.27WHIP
SD
3.23ERA
3.72FIP
9.58K/9
3.70BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
1.7 runs
39.1% win
SD F5
1.7 runs
39.8% win
F5 Total
3.4
NRFI
65.3%
YRFI
34.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.65
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIL8 injured
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
Joey Ortiz SSDAY-TO-DAY
Cooper Pratt SS10-DAY-IL
Sal Frelick RF10-DAY-IL
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP15-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
Samad Taylor LF10-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
MIL away underdog moderately underpriced at -120 due to Kyle Harrison's elite pitcher profile (3.07 ERA, 30.9% K) vs Walker Buehler's liability arm (5.48 ERA). Park factor 0.9 (Petco suppression) aligns with superior MIL arm.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch MIL: Harrison (3.07 ERA, 30.9% K, LHP) vs Buehler (5.48 ERA, 19.4% K, RHP) - 2.41 ERA gap, elite vs mediocre
- Petco Park suppression: 0.9 park factor favors Harrison elite control; Buehler's weak command suffers
- Away underdog historical strength: a supportive track record combo despite historical support showing 44.6% in specific context
- F5_ML edge +6.3%: first 5 innings play to Harrison's early strength
- Market underprices MIL: -120 (54.6%) vs 58.9% model = fair +1.8% edge
Risk Factors
- F5_ML historical support RED broadly (a supportive track record) suggests first-inning uncertainty
- Harrison's 30.9% K-rate may be small-sample inflated
- Buehler rebound risk - late-season variance is high
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.