FINAL: STL 5 — PHI 6. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected STL 3.9 - PHI 3.8 (STL at 50.8% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 7.7 total runs.
STL
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
PHI
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLPHI
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.4% (3,223 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
246
STL
246
Projected
STL 3.9 — PHI 3.8
Actual
STL 5 — PHI 6
Pick Results
PHI @ STL NRFInrfiWIN+0.52u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andrew Painter R
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%96 mph9% whiff
SL20%88 mph37% whiff
ST14%83 mph22% whiff
Hunter Dobbins R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%95 mph14% whiff
SL17%88 mph21% whiff
ST16%82 mph23% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
96°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.077 Total: 1.040
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.40ERA
3.83FIP
10.39K/9
3.56BB/9
1.35WHIP
STL
4.32ERA
4.37FIP
7.95K/9
4.16BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-19.6% EV
-105
F5 UNDER 4.5
+14.3% EV
+112
F5_ML AWAY
-10.8% EV
-116
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-10.7% EV
+138
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
+9.9% EV
-115
NRFI NRFI
+7.5% EV
+112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.0 runs
38.3% win
STL F5
2.2 runs
44.4% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
54.5%
YRFI
45.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.91
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
69%
No HR
9%
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.292 | Barrel: 16.6% | vs Hunter Dobbins | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Jordan Walker STL27.1%
ISO: 0.195 | Barrel: 11.9% | vs Andrew Painter | Park: 0.98x
Bryce Harper PHI26.7%
ISO: 0.322 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Hunter Dobbins | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Andrew Painter
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Hunter Dobbins
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PHI7 injured
Caleb Kilian RP15-DAY-IL
Derek Hill CFDAY-TO-DAY
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Marchan C10-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
+1 more
STL2 injured
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Away pitcher Andrew Painter (7.0 ERA) is a severe liability at STL; real value is UNDER 9.0 (+9.9%, 58.8% model WR) and F5 UNDER 4.5 (+14.3%, a supportive track record) because Painter's ERA dominates despite scorching 95.9F heat.
Key Factors
- Painter pitcher mismatch: 7.0 ERA (18.6% K) vs Dobbins 3.89 ERA (21.3% K) = 3.11 ERA gap favoring home, yet model shows only +0.3% ML edge
- Heat inflates totals but Painter suppresses: 95.9F, +7.7% HR mult, +4.0% total mult should inflate scoring, but Painter's 7.0 ERA creates floor
- UNDER 9.0 at +9.9% edge (58.8% model WR): strongest clean edge on this game
- F5 UNDER 4.5 at +14.3% edge (53.9% model WR): first 5 innings especially low-scoring probable
- Hot weather paradox: typically inflates totals, but Painter's bad ERA overrides heat effect
Risk Factors
- F5 UNDER historical support limited sample - live betting may see sharp money test this early
- Painter volatility: 7.0 ERA real but 95.9F + power bats (Schwarber ISO 0.292) could create outlier inning
- ML edge trapped at +0.3% - side play is a trap, don't bet it
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 50.8%
--
Run Line
+1.5
--
Total
9.0
+9.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.