TEX vs LAA prediction for August 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAA 2.9 - TEX 3.3. TEX is favored with a 53.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.2 total runs.
LAA
2.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TEX
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAATEX
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.1% (3,223 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
135
LAA
135
Projected
LAA 2.9 — TEX 3.3
Actual
LAA 1 — TEX 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
MacKenzie Gore L
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%95 mph21% whiff
CU19%82 mph28% whiff
CH12%86 mph36% whiff
Reid Detmers L
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%94 mph18% whiff
SL32%86 mph33% whiff
CU11%72 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
79°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.070 Total: 1.039
8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
4.14ERA
4.36FIP
8.33K/9
3.82BB/9
1.35WHIP
LAA
4.06ERA
4.31FIP
9.35K/9
4.06BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
1.8 runs
41.6% win
LAA F5
1.7 runs
37.5% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
63.2%
YRFI
36.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.70
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Nathan Eovaldi SP15-DAY-IL
Danny Jansen C60-DAY-IL
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
Jakob Junis RP15-DAY-IL
Jose Corniell RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAA8 injured
Sam Bachman RP15-DAY-IL
Sebastian Rivero C10-DAY-IL
Shaun Anderson RP15-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B60-DAY-IL
Jack Kochanowicz SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Model favors TEX away despite Cody Bradford's elite profile (0.00 ERA, 25% K, LHP) vs Johnson's 7.68 ERA; DATA INTEGRITY ISSUE. UNDER 7.5 (+10.8% edge) is the only clean play.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch INVERTED: Bradford (0.00 ERA, 25% K, 0.778 command) should demolish Johnson (7.68 ERA, 17.3% K), yet model shows TEX at 52.8%
- Bradford 0.00 ERA red flag: may indicate prospect call-up or IL return with compromised stuff
- UNDER 7.5 at +10.8% edge (a supportive track record, n=23): clean edge regardless of side uncertainty
- Road underdog structural edge contradicted by Bradford's elite profile
- Neutral weather: 78.6F, 7.9 mph tail wind, park factor 1.0
Risk Factors
- DATA INTEGRITY: model favoring TEX despite massive pitcher disadvantage - high risk of model failure
- TEX road underdog performance uncertain given conflicting signals
- UNDER historical support modest sample despite strong edge
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.