FINAL: TOR 2 — BOS 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TOR 2.8 - BOS 4.1 (BOS at 60.3% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.9 total runs.
TOR
2.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
BOS
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORBOS
+1.5
Run Line (TOR)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.4% (3,223 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
246
TOR
135
Projected
TOR 2.8 — BOS 4.1
Actual
TOR 2 — BOS 1
Pick Results
BOS @ TOR NRFInrfiWIN+0.42u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sonny Gray R
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI21%92 mph13% whiff
ST20%85 mph39% whiff
FC19%88 mph14% whiff
Jameson Taillon R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF27%92 mph19% whiff
FC19%86 mph25% whiff
CH16%84 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
74°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.042 Total: 1.022
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.34ERA
3.53FIP
9.70K/9
3.07BB/9
1.23WHIP
TOR
3.19ERA
3.89FIP
7.77K/9
4.14BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML HOME
-21.0% EV
+124
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-18.8% EV
-119
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+11.2% EV
-101
NRFI NRFI
+5.8% EV
-130
F5_ML AWAY
+4.9% EV
-161
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-4.4% EV
+103
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
2.5 runs
56.0% win
TOR F5
1.4 runs
26.1% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
63.6%
YRFI
36.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.72
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
12%
Willson Contreras BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.236 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Jameson Taillon | Park: 1.01x
Wilyer Abreu BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.205 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Jameson Taillon | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Jarren Duran BOS23.2%
ISO: 0.184 | Barrel: 7.7% | vs Jameson Taillon | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Sonny Gray
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Jameson Taillon
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Adley Rutschman C10-DAY-IL
Triston Casas 1B60-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Curtis Mead 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Kazuma Okamoto 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Spencer Arrighetti SP15-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Luis Urias 2B10-DAY-IL
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
Patrick Corbin SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
ML edge is trapped (-1.1%) despite ace-vs-back-end pitcher mismatch; real value lies in peripheral markets (NRFI GREEN at a supportive track record, UNDER 8.0 at +11.2% edge) not primary side action.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch: Gray (3.00 ERA, 22.7% K) vs Taillon (6.44 ERA, 21.3% K) - ace vs back-end starter
- Low-scoring projection: Model 6.87 runs vs market 8.0 = -1.13 run edge on UNDER (+11.2% edge)
- Dome conditions: Rogers Centre retractable closed neutralizes weather, supports Gray's sub-3.00 ERA
- NRFI historically well-supported: a supportive track record - best edge on this board
- ML edge trapped: -1.1% to BOS despite pitcher advantage; market correctly pricing Gray's strength
Risk Factors
- BOS road underperformance risk vs TOR power bats (Contreras ISO 0.236)
- Total leg weakness: UNDER may have already priced Gray's elite ERA in
- Peripheral market trap risk: true directional alpha is nil
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BOS 60.3%
-4.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-4.2 pts
Total
8.0
+11.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.