FINAL: SF 3 — HOU 6. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SF 2.7 - HOU 3.3 (HOU at 53.6% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.0 total runs.
SF
2.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
HOU
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFHOU
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
HOUSF W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.1% (3,223 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
135
SF
135
Projected
SF 2.7 — HOU 3.3
Actual
SF 3 — HOU 6
Pick Results
HOU @ SF NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Hayden Wesneski R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%94 mph14% whiff
ST26%83 mph30% whiff
SI14%92 mph21% whiff
Blade Tidwell R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST37%83 mph32% whiff
FF36%96 mph19% whiff
SI11%94 mph15% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
62°F13 mph wind
HR: 1.073 Total: 1.043
13mph out
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
3.44ERA
4.11FIP
9.29K/9
3.64BB/9
1.18WHIP
SF
4.59ERA
4.59FIP
7.21K/9
4.46BB/9
1.48WHIP
Betting Edges
F5 UNDER 4.5
+29.5% EV
-102
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-24.6% EV
-104
NRFI NRFI
+14.2% EV
-108
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+13.9% EV
-118
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-9.5% EV
+116
F5_ML AWAY
-8.0% EV
-145
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
1.6 runs
40.7% win
SF F5
1.4 runs
35.5% win
F5 Total
3.0
NRFI
65.1%
YRFI
34.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.66
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.2
Over 0.5 HR
67%
Over 1.5 HR
32%
No HR
33%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.325 | Barrel: 17.4% | vs Blade Tidwell | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Bryce Eldridge SF30.0%
ISO: 0.188 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Hayden Wesneski | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Rafael Devers SF27.2%
ISO: 0.285 | Barrel: 13.0% | vs Hayden Wesneski | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Hayden Wesneski
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Blade Tidwell
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU4 injured
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF10-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
SF8 injured
Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
Matt Chapman 3B10-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto RF10-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
SF home pitcher TBD is unresolvable data gap; NRFI and F5 UNDER 4.5 are the only clean plays given quantifiable weather suppression at Oracle Park.
Key Factors
- Hunter Brown away (3.81 ERA, 25.8% K): solid arm, likely outperforms unknown SF starter
- SF pitcher TBD: blocks matchup analysis entirely
- Extreme weather suppression: Oracle Park 61.5F, 12.6 mph tail wind, marine layer, park factor 0.88
- NRFI historically well-supported: a supportive track record with +7.5% edge
- F5 UNDER 4.5 edge +7.5%: first 5 innings especially cold, under-scoring high probability
Risk Factors
- TBD pitcher deal-breaker: side play unreliable without SF starter data
- Cold weather volatility creates unpredictable wind gusts and variance
- NRFI only defensible market given data gap
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 53.6%
-0.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-0.7 pts
Total
8.5
+13.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.