FINAL: ATL 5 — NYM 8. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected ATL 5.3 - NYM 3.6 (ATL at 63.3% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.0 total runs.
ATL
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYM
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLNYM
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.0% (3,223 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
246
ATL
357
Projected
ATL 5.3 — NYM 3.6
Actual
ATL 5 — NYM 8
Pick Results
NYM @ ATL NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Christian Scott R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF49%96 mph25% whiff
ST23%82 mph29% whiff
FC17%90 mph20% whiff
Bryce Elder R
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI28%91 mph10% whiff
SL25%83 mph27% whiff
FF22%92 mph15% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
90°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.064 Total: 1.033
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.32ERA
4.25FIP
9.16K/9
4.22BB/9
1.41WHIP
ATL
2.86ERA
3.37FIP
9.84K/9
3.16BB/9
1.09WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-24.0% EV
-110
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-12.8% EV
-179
F5_ML HOME
+10.2% EV
-120
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+8.4% EV
+146
ML AWAY
-7.6% EV
+130
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-5.6% EV
-114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
1.9 runs
29.6% win
ATL F5
3.1 runs
55.7% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
54.5%
YRFI
45.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.94
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
74%
No HR
8%
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.308 | Barrel: 16.4% | vs Christian Scott | Platoon: 1.12x
Drake Baldwin ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.193 | Barrel: 10.3% | vs Christian Scott | Platoon: 1.12x
Michael Harris II ATL26.9%
ISO: 0.206 | Barrel: 10.1% | vs Christian Scott | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Christian Scott
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Bryce Elder
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Austin Warren RP15-DAY-IL
Juan Soto LF10-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL7 injured
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
Reynaldo Lopez RP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Jurickson Profar LFSUSPENSION
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
ATL home favorite moderately underpriced at -140 (58.3% implied vs 63.3% model) and hot weather (90F, +3.3% run mult) support ATL despite away pitcher advantage on paper.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch AGAINST NYM: Scott (3.40 ERA, 28.8% K) better than Elder (3.99 ERA, 19.7% K), yet model favors home ATL - driver is lineup + home field
- Hot weather edge: 90F, +3.3% total multiplier increases run expectancy, favors ATL power bats (Olson ISO 0.308)
- Thin air effect: ATL density altitude 2154 ft supports HR production; HR mult +6.4%
- Home favorite combo: a supportive track record on home favorites with 0-5% edge
- ATL ML +2.3% edge: Market undervaluing home team in hot weather vs away pitcher edge
Risk Factors
- Away pitcher advantage (Scott 3.40 ERA, 28.8% K) not fully captured by home field premium
- F5_ML historically weak: Home F5_ML edge +10.2% but historical WR only 47.5%
- Hot weather volatility creates high variance games, eroding edge certainty
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 63.3%
+8.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+8.4 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.