COL vs ARI prediction for August 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ARI 5.5 - COL 5.4. ARI is favored with a 52.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.9 total runs.
ARI
5.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
COL
5.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARICOL
-1.5
Run Line (ARI)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.9% (3,223 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
357
ARI
467
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gabriel Hughes R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF55%92 mph16% whiff
SL11%86 mph21% whiff
CH10%87 mph15% whiff
Michael Soroka R
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SV33%81 mph33% whiff
FF32%94 mph12% whiff
CH12%86 mph19% whiff
Weather Impact
Chase Field
106°F9 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.072 Total: 1.036
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
COL
4.95ERA
4.29FIP
7.66K/9
3.87BB/9
1.49WHIP
ARI
3.86ERA
3.93FIP
7.92K/9
3.01BB/9
1.20WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
3.0 runs
42.7% win
ARI F5
3.1 runs
44.4% win
F5 Total
6.0
NRFI
50.0%
YRFI
50.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.18
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
COL8 injured
Tyler Freeman RF10-DAY-IL
Jaden Hill RP15-DAY-IL
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Jeff Criswell RP15-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ARI8 injured
Ryne Nelson SP60-DAY-IL
Zac Gallen SP60-DAY-IL
Corbin Burnes SP60-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF10-DAY-IL
Drey Jameson RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.