BAL vs STL prediction for August 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 3.9 - BAL 4.5. BAL is favored with a 51.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.4 total runs.
STL
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
BAL
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLBAL
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.4% (3,347 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
346
STL
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Bradish R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI35%95 mph10% whiff
SL26%87 mph34% whiff
CU22%85 mph37% whiff
Michael McGreevy R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF25%92 mph12% whiff
CH20%87 mph26% whiff
SI17%91 mph9% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
92°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.066 Total: 1.034
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.29ERA
3.76FIP
9.03K/9
3.72BB/9
1.32WHIP
STL
4.54ERA
4.40FIP
7.89K/9
4.19BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.5 runs
45.9% win
STL F5
2.2 runs
38.2% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
59.1%
YRFI
40.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Tyler O'Neill RFDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL5 injured
Masyn Winn SS10-DAY-IL
Everson Pereira RF10-DAY-IL
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Andre Pallante SP15-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.