CIN vs ARI prediction for August 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ARI 5.2 - CIN 5.5. ARI is favored with a 51.2% win probability. ARI wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.7 total runs.
ARI
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CIN
5.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARICIN
-1.5
Run Line (ARI)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.6% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
467
ARI
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andrew Abbott L
CIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%92 mph10% whiff
ST20%82 mph26% whiff
CH19%86 mph36% whiff
Mitch Bratt L
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%91 mph11% whiff
SV24%80 mph15% whiff
SL10%87 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Chase Field
109°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.078 Total: 1.039
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.17ERA
4.71FIP
9.09K/9
4.95BB/9
1.39WHIP
ARI
3.32ERA
3.58FIP
7.82K/9
2.91BB/9
1.15WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
3.3 runs
49.5% win
ARI F5
2.8 runs
37.8% win
F5 Total
6.1
NRFI
47.2%
YRFI
52.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.23
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CIN6 injured
Brandon Williamson SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Steer 1B10-DAY-IL
Michael Toglia 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Dunn CF60-DAY-IL
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
ARI8 injured
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF10-DAY-IL
Ketel Marte 2B10-DAY-IL
Corbin Burnes SP60-DAY-IL
Zac Gallen SP60-DAY-IL
Ryne Nelson SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Walston SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.