CIN vs CHC — August 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation has completed 10,000 iterations for this matchup. The market spread is -1.5 with a total of 9.0. Projected scores and win probabilities are shown below; the model edge, recommended pick and Kelly unit sizing are premium.
CHC
6.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
CIN
5.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCCIN
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Chase Burns R
CIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF56%98 mph15% whiff
SL38%90 mph49% whiff
CH5%90 mph29% whiff
Shota Imanaga L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF41%92 mph17% whiff
FS33%83 mph40% whiff
ST15%81 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
77°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.069 Total: 1.037
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.33ERA
4.76FIP
8.97K/9
4.91BB/9
1.40WHIP
CHC
4.19ERA
4.65FIP
8.93K/9
3.96BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
2.9 runs
38.0% win
CHC F5
3.5 runs
49.7% win
F5 Total
6.4
NRFI
47.3%
YRFI
52.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.22
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CIN7 injured
Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B10-DAY-IL
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Williamson SP60-DAY-IL
Michael Toglia 1B10-DAY-IL
Spencer Steer 1B10-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
CHC8 injured
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Riley Martin RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
More Projections Today
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.