CIN vs SEA prediction for July 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 4.3 - CIN 5.0. CIN is favored with a 51.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.3 total runs.
SEA
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CIN
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEACIN
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.0% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
357
SEA
246
Projected
SEA 4.3 — CIN 5.0
Actual
SEA 3 — CIN 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brady Singer R
CIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI48%91 mph14% whiff
SL29%82 mph31% whiff
ST13%82 mph44% whiff
Emerson Hancock R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF38%95 mph21% whiff
SI24%95 mph10% whiff
ST18%77 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
81°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.033 Total: 1.017
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.59ERA
5.23FIP
8.86K/9
5.87BB/9
1.53WHIP
SEA
3.37ERA
3.72FIP
8.85K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
2.6 runs
45.1% win
SEA F5
2.5 runs
40.5% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
57.2%
YRFI
42.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.90
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CIN7 injured
Nick Lodolo SP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Steer 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Brandon Williamson SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Dunn CF10-DAY-IL
Matt McLain 2B10-DAY-IL
Tony Santillan RP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
SEA8 injured
Julio Rodriguez CFDAY-TO-DAY
J.P. Crawford SSDAY-TO-DAY
Rob Refsnyder DH10-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →