WSH vs COL prediction for July 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects COL 9.1 - WSH 8.5. COL is favored with a 52.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 11.5. Model projects 17.5 total runs.
COL
9.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 11.5
WSH
8.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLWSH
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
11.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.6% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
7810
COL
7911
Projected
COL 9.1 — WSH 8.5
Actual
COL 0 — WSH 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cade Cavalli R
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%97 mph18% whiff
KC27%86 mph38% whiff
SI16%96 mph10% whiff
Gabriel Hughes R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF55%93 mph22% whiff
SL15%87 mph19% whiff
ST12%86 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
95°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.119 Total: 1.059
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
4.62ERA
4.93FIP
7.77K/9
4.06BB/9
1.38WHIP
COL
5.45ERA
4.65FIP
8.19K/9
4.48BB/9
1.58WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
4.6 runs
42.3% win
COL F5
5.0 runs
48.6% win
F5 Total
9.6
NRFI
33.5%
YRFI
66.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.83
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Irvin SP60-DAY-IL
PJ Poulin RP15-DAY-IL
Richard Lovelady RP60-DAY-IL
Drew Millas C10-DAY-IL
Brad Lord RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
COL8 injured
Brenton Doyle CF10-DAY-IL
Jeff Criswell RP15-DAY-IL
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Blas Castano RP15-DAY-IL
Jaden Hill RP15-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →