LAD vs PHI prediction for July 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 6.0 - LAD 5.4. PHI is favored with a 53.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 11.4 total runs.
PHI
6.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
LAD
5.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHILAD
+1.5
Run Line (PHI)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
357
PHI
468
Projected
PHI 6.0 — LAD 5.4
Actual
PHI 5 — LAD 9
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Eric Lauer L
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%91 mph17% whiff
FC19%87 mph18% whiff
CH16%84 mph11% whiff
Aaron Nola R
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
KC34%78 mph39% whiff
FF24%92 mph12% whiff
SI20%92 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
79°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.061 Total: 1.033
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
3.58ERA
3.45FIP
10.00K/9
3.64BB/9
1.19WHIP
PHI
4.19ERA
3.22FIP
10.30K/9
3.17BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
3.2 runs
37.0% win
PHI F5
3.9 runs
51.9% win
F5 Total
7.1
NRFI
41.3%
YRFI
58.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.51
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Edwin Diaz RP60-DAY-IL
Will Smith C60-DAY-IL
Enrique Hernandez 1B10-DAY-IL
Tyler Glasnow SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Treinen RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
PHI6 injured
Garrett Stubbs C10-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP15-DAY-IL
Tanner Banks RP15-DAY-IL
Lou Trivino RP15-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →