PIT vs NYY prediction for July 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 6.2 - PIT 5.2. NYY is favored with a 55.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 11.4 total runs.
NYY
6.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
PIT
5.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYPIT
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.5% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
357
NYY
468
Projected
NYY 6.2 — PIT 5.2
Actual
NYY 2 — PIT 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Mitch Keller R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%94 mph14% whiff
SI19%92 mph11% whiff
ST17%82 mph24% whiff
Gerrit Cole R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%97 mph16% whiff
SL19%90 mph25% whiff
CH14%86 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
84°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.090 Total: 1.050
thin air, 11mph out
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
4.50ERA
4.23FIP
9.39K/9
4.70BB/9
1.41WHIP
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
3.0 runs
39.0% win
NYY F5
3.5 runs
50.0% win
F5 Total
6.6
NRFI
47.6%
YRFI
52.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.23
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PIT6 injured
Chris Devenski RP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Horwitz 1B10-DAY-IL
Oneil Cruz CF60-DAY-IL
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
Endy Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Evan Sisk RP15-DAY-IL
NYY5 injured
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →