NYM vs MIL prediction for July 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 5.0 - NYM 3.1. MIL is favored with a 60.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
MIL
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYM
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILNYM
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.6% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
135
MIL
357
Projected
MIL 5.0 — NYM 3.1
Actual
MIL 4 — NYM 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Christian Scott R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF49%95 mph25% whiff
ST23%81 mph32% whiff
FC18%90 mph18% whiff
Logan Henderson R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%93 mph22% whiff
CH33%82 mph31% whiff
FC22%87 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
67°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.037 Total: 1.020
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
MIL
3.66ERA
3.52FIP
9.38K/9
3.94BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
1.7 runs
27.0% win
MIL F5
3.0 runs
58.3% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
57.7%
YRFI
42.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.90
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
NYM7 injured
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Austin Warren RP15-DAY-IL
Dedniel Nunez RP60-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
MIL8 injured
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
Sal Frelick RF10-DAY-IL
Kyle Harrison SP15-DAY-IL
David Hamilton 3B10-DAY-IL
DL Hall RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Lockridge LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →