OAK vs ARI prediction for July 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ARI 5.9 - OAK 5.1. ARI is favored with a 55.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.0 total runs.
ARI
5.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
OAK
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARIOAK
-1.5
Run Line (ARI)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.5% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
357
ARI
468
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gage Jump L
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%96 mph19% whiff
SL24%87 mph24% whiff
CU12%83 mph23% whiff
Merrill Kelly R
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%92 mph12% whiff
CH26%88 mph28% whiff
FC14%91 mph13% whiff
Weather Impact
Chase Field
99°F1 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.064 Total: 1.032
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
4.87ERA
3.91FIP
9.81K/9
4.20BB/9
1.44WHIP
ARI
3.28ERA
3.68FIP
8.28K/9
3.10BB/9
1.10WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
3.2 runs
43.2% win
ARI F5
3.3 runs
45.1% win
F5 Total
6.5
NRFI
48.0%
YRFI
52.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.22
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
OAK8 injured
J.T. Ginn SP15-DAY-IL
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 3B10-DAY-IL
Mark Leiter Jr. RP15-DAY-IL
Colby Thomas RFDAY-TO-DAY
Nick Kurtz 1B10-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ARI8 injured
Drey Jameson RP15-DAY-IL
Zac Gallen SP15-DAY-IL
Justin Martinez RP60-DAY-IL
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF10-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →