FINAL: LAA 0 — STL 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected LAA 4.4 - STL 4.3 (LAA at 52.0% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
LAA
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
STL
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAASTL
-1.5
Run Line (LAA)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
STL L5LAA
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.3% (2,978 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
246
LAA
246
Projected
LAA 4.4 — STL 4.3
Actual
LAA 0 — STL 1
Pick Results
STL @ LAA NRFInrfiWIN+0.49u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Hunter Dobbins R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%96 mph11% whiff
SL20%89 mph25% whiff
SI13%95 mph19% whiff
Reid Detmers L
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%94 mph18% whiff
SL33%86 mph32% whiff
CU11%72 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
84°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.070 Total: 1.038
thin air, 7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.30ERA
4.29FIP
8.27K/9
4.08BB/9
1.36WHIP
LAA
4.26ERA
4.74FIP
9.10K/9
5.18BB/9
1.42WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-35.8% EV
-192
ML HOME
-6.9% EV
-133
F5_ML HOME
-6.5% EV
-147
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-6.3% EV
-122
F5_ML AWAY
-3.3% EV
+118
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-3.0% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.2 runs
38.0% win
LAA F5
2.6 runs
46.9% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
54.9%
YRFI
45.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.93
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
59%
No HR
14%
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.318 | Barrel: 10.9% | vs Reid Detmers | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Mike Trout LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.241 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Hunter Dobbins | Park: 0.98x
Zach Neto LAA28.6%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Hunter Dobbins | Park: 0.98x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Hunter Dobbins
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Reid Detmers
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL3 injured
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
LAA8 injured
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Adam Frazier 2B10-DAY-IL
Travis d'Arnaud C60-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
Sebastian Rivero C10-DAY-IL
Jack Kochanowicz SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAA 52.0%
-1.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-1.4 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →